Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Nonferrous Mining Corp, Mosaic Co/The, Base Oil, Zijin Gold, Viper Energy Partners LP, Rio Tinto Ltd, Crude Oil, Capitan Silver , Deutsche Rohstoff AG and more

• The rally in China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK)‘s stock price over the last 6 months should result in the stock being added to a global index in November. 
• China Nonferrous Mining Corp (1258 HK) has outperformed a lot of its peers and now trades at higher valuations.
• Positioning has increased sharply in the last 6 weeks, and yesterday’s sharp fall could have been a result of unwinding of some of that positioning.

• Shares of fertilizer giant Mosaic Co. have been under significant pressure as the company grapples with dual setbacks — unplanned phosphate plant outages and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds tied to U.S. trade tariffs.
• On October 10, the company disclosed a meaningful production shortfall in its phosphate segment for Q3 2025, citing mechanical issues and utility interruptions that pushed preliminary volumes down to just 1.7 million tons, well below expectations.
• This comes on top of a challenging landscape in which U.S. tariffs have eroded the competitiveness of American fertilizer exports.

• US base oils demand could be steadier amid rangebound prices and signs of more muted pressure from any surplus supply.
• US base oils demand typically rises in month of October from September, before falling in month of November.
• Demand could be lower than usual as buyers and distributors work down stocks built up as buffer against weather-related supply disruptions during Atlantic hurricane season.

• Zijin Gold (2259 HK)’s share price has surged by 92% to reach HK$137.4 per share since its IPO price of HK$71.59 per share.
• Zijin Gold now trades at a 61% premium to the comps’ average EV/EBITDA valuation multiple in 2026. 
• One could argue that this excessive valuation multiple is a bit too aggressive despite higher growth prospects. Therefore, on a relative valuation basis, we would not chase after Zijin Gold. 

• Viper Energy is sharpening its strategic lens on the Permian Basin as it evaluates potential sales of non-core, non-Permian assets.
• Following its recent drop-down transaction with Diamondback and the pending merger with Sitio Royalties, management has signaled a clear intent to focus on concentrated royalty acreage in the Permian, which offers both operational alignment and long-term production visibility.
• The Sitio deal—expected to close imminently—will significantly expand Viper’s inventory depth and increase its scale, but it also introduces assets outside the Permian footprint.

• Pilbara shipments are tracking the lower end of guidance, with cyclone recovery hinging on a strong Q4.
• Simandou shipments stay on schedule, adding supply pressure amid weak Chinese steel demand and negative margins.
• China’s diversification and RMB trade shift threaten Rio’s pricing power, demanding agility and strategic adaptation.

• Crude oil futures opened the week slightly firmer as benchmarks recovered some of Friday’s steep losses, but markets are set to remain volatile amid renewed tariff threats between the US and China.
• Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.32/b (1415 BST) versus Friday’s settle of $62.73/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $59.67/b against a previous close of $58.90/b.
• Crude prices plunged on Friday as part of a broad-based financial selloff following renewed trade tensions between Washington and Beijing after US President Trump threatened a “massive increase” in tariffs on Chinese goods, citing “hostile” export controls on critical minerals.

• What you need to know: • Capitan announced high-grade assay results at the Cruz de Plata silver-gold project in Durango, Mexico.
• • The highlight high-grade silver intercept was reported of 1,541 g/t AgEq over 1.5m within a broader interval of 202 g/t AgEq over 18.3m.
• • A new key target was identified, known as the Peñoles Fault.

• Asia’s base oils demand could stay more cautious as signs of healthy stocks and rising supplies curb urgency to buy.
• Any need to move surplus supplies to markets beyond Asia could put pressure on adjustment in prices to make those shipments more feasible.
• Any such moves, and the subsequent prospect of additional price-pressure, could add to attraction of procuring smaller volumes more frequently.

• Deutsche Rohstoff AG is a German-based holding company with a primary focus on the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States, which constitutes the core of its revenue generation.
• The company exhibits a strong long-term growth trajectory in revenue and net income, however, it is coupled with high volatility and consistently negative free cash flow due to significant capital expenditures in its U.S. oil and gas operations.
• Valuation appears attractive with low multiples compared to peers, but this is balanced by the inherent risks of commodity price fluctuations, declining margins from their 2022 peak, and the capital-intensive nature of its E&P activities.

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