In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow
- [Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
- Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving
- Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred
- Oil futures: Crude flat amid surplus fears, geopolitical uncertainty
- Perimeter Solutions Goes Big With MMT Acquisition—Will It Pay Off?
- Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 08–12): AS51 Escapes Range as Relative Performance Vs SPX Turns
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow
- The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
- We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
- The MV Global J-Gold Miners index represents the performance small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event.
- We expect one-way flow of US$386mm for the December 2025 rebal.
Overview #43 – The Gift that Keeps on Giving
- A review of recent events and data impacting our investment themes and outlook
- Central banks add fuel to the ongoing commodity bull market
- Could we see a meaningful de-escalation in US and China tensions
Nippon Steel: Ambition Raised, Returns Deferred
- FY26–30 plan lifts scale ambitions, but ¥6 tn capex and U.S. Steel integration keep free cash flow negative through FY26.
- U.S. Steel synergies shift to FY27–28 amid labor, regulatory, and spread pressures, delaying ROCE recovery toward the 9–10% target.
- Look cheap on NTM multiples, but elevated leverage, FX sensitivity, and sub-8% forward ROCE limit near-term re-rating.
Oil futures: Crude flat amid surplus fears, geopolitical uncertainty
- Crude oil futures were little moved Friday but still on track for a second weekly decline, as sentiment swayed between geopolitics and supply surplus.
- Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.09/b (2028 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $61.28/b, while Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $57.39/b against a previous close of $57.60/b.
- This week’s seizure of a tanker that Washington said is linked to illicit shipments of both Venezuelan and Iranian oil has raised tensions in the region, potentially threatening future exports, while analysts were monitoring any potential retaliation from Iran.
Perimeter Solutions Goes Big With MMT Acquisition—Will It Pay Off?
- Perimeter Solutions is turning up the heat on its strategic ambitions with the proposed $685 million acquisition of Medical Manufacturing Technologies (MMT), a move that could reshape its operational landscape.
- Announced on December 10, 2025, the deal is expected to close in Q1 2026 and will be financed via $500 million in new secured debt and $185 million in existing cash.
- This announcement comes on the heels of Perimeter’s robust Q3 2025 performance, marked by $186.3 million in adjusted EBITDA and year-to-date free cash flow generation of $197 million.
Australia Single Stock Options (Dec 08–12): AS51 Escapes Range as Relative Performance Vs SPX Turns
- AS51 broke out of a tight multi day range Friday with one of the strongest moves of the year.
- Relative performance versus SPX has begun to improve, hinting at a potential shift after prolonged underperformance.
- SPASX200 1-month implied vol remains pinned near historic lows which could provide an interesting setup into year end.
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