In today’s briefing:
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
- Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer
- Sentiment Signal in Gold
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
- [IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
- Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
- [Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
- Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Second Drilling Rig to Be Mobilized in May
Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
- Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
- Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
- In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.
Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer
- Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
- Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
- Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.
Sentiment Signal in Gold
- This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
- Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
- Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
- US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
- US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
- Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
- Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
- Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
- Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.
[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
- PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist.
- China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
- Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.
Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech
- FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
- UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
- At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
- For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
- For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
- Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.
[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
- BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
- BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
- The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.
Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Second Drilling Rig to Be Mobilized in May
- 4Q24 net production was 4,738 boe/d.
- The YE24 cash position had been reported previously and there are no surprises in the remainder of the YE24 balance sheet.
- The existing rig is being mobilized to Alberta Llanos to drill two new horizontal development wells in 2Q25.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
