Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Gold, Tata Steel Ltd, Silver, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Iron Ore, PetroTal, Deep Industries, Barton Gold Holdings , Nagaoka International and more

• Concerns raised in D.C. about potential restrictions on expatriating funds, taxes, and foreign ownership of treasuries
• International investors expressing preference for investing in private assets over U.S. Treasuries
• Potential increase in gold prices due to redirection of foreign assets into gold, with estimates suggesting a 33% boost in quarterly gold demand and historical relationship between demand and prices.

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• Tata Steel reported resilient India performance in Q4 FY25 with strong volumes, though consolidated margins remained under pressure due to ongoing European losses.
• The Kalinganagar CRM line and Ludhiana EAF are progressing toward completion. The company’s $2.5 billion infusion into its overseas arm marks a strategic pivot, potentially weighing on returns.
• We apply a lower EV/EBITDA multiple of 6x (vs. 7.5x earlier) to reflect the weaker capital allocation stance, flattish steel price outlook, and relatively subdued growth versus peers. 

• Smarter Markets podcast discusses outlook for silver in energy transition and investor portfolios with Michael Duranzo, President and CEO at the Silver Institute
• Recent conversation at India Silver Conference focused on silver’s underperformance compared to gold, supply deficit, and opportunities for investment in silver market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• WTI futures rose 4.7% for the week ending 09/May, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions, lower U.S. output, and falling crude inventories.
• The U.S. rig count fell by six to 578. The oil rig count fell by five to 474, while gas rigs remained flat at 101.
• WTI OI PCR fell to 0.81 on 09/May from 0.84 on 02/May. Call OI rose by 4% WoW, while put OI inched up 1.2%.

• For the week ending 09/May, U.S. natural gas prices rose by 4.6% on the back of lower output, higher LNG exports, and improved demand outlook.
• For the week ending 02/May, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 104 Bcf, moderately higher than analyst expectations of a 103 Bcf build.
• Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.92 on 09/May compared to 0.94 on 02/May. Call OI increased by 4% WoW, while put OI grew by 2%.

• Jan-Mar 2025 shipments for Australian miners RIO AU, BHP AU, and FMG AU  were sluggish, registering -9.3%,-4.3%, and 0.4% YoY, respectively, due to inclement weather.
• Vale (VALE US) shipments were comparatively better, up 3.6% YoY to 66.1 mn tons. The big four kept their annual production guidance intact. 
• Positive news came from Vales China clients, as blast furnace utilization passed 90%, and some mills are now making cash profits of 200 RMB/ton. 

• 1Q25 production and net cash at the end of March had been previously announced.
• PetroTal maintains a solid financial position with US$116.6 mm in cash.
• Additionally, the company has secured a term loan with a syndicate of Peruvian banks, with commitments of up to US$65 mm to finance the erosion project at Bretana.

• Deep Industries (DEEPI IN) reported 39.7% YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY25; EBITDA margins stood resilient at 36.1% despite a INR 251 crore exceptional loss due to asset clean-up.
• New offshore contracts (INR 281 crore barge deal), and Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC IN) PEC, and a growing INR 2,960 crore order book reinforce the company’s  revenue visibility.
• Despite one-off noise in Q4, Deep’s core operations are intact. FY26 guidance of 25–30% revenue growth looks achievable, backed by execution tailwinds.

As promised, on 5 May, Barton announced the results of its optimised scoping study on its Tunkillia project in South Australia. Relative to its initial scoping study (July 2024), capex was down 8.0%, while unit oxide and sulphide processing costs were 24.4% and 18.0% lower, respectively, as more realistic ore hardnesses were considered for grinding purposes. The life of the operation has been extended from 7.7 to 10 years, with the result that the amount of payable gold produced has increased by 13.1%. In conjunction with a 42.9% increase in the gold price to A$5,000/oz (c US$3,333/oz), these changes (among others) resulted in an increase in pre-tax project NPV7.5 of 176.6% to A$1,416m and an 33.2 percentage point increase in the internal rate of return to 73.2% (A$781m and 48.3% at A$4,000/oz Au, respectively). Using the same inputs, our financial model generates an NPV7.5 within 6% of Barton’s, from which we estimate a post-tax project NPV7.5 of A$895.9m, or A$4.09/share.

• Cumulative Q3 FY06/25 results show revenue of JPY5.4bn, operating profit of JPY771mn, and net income of JPY496mn.
• Water-related business revenue was JPY1.7bn, with segment profit of JPY54mn, impacted by increased personnel expenses.
• Energy-related business revenue reached JPY3.7bn, with segment profit of JPY1.1bn, affected by project delays and personnel costs.