Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Iron Ore, Crude Oil, Gold, Zimplats Holdings and more

• Iron ore’s resilience looks fragile, supported by short-term supply disruptions, while weakening steel demand and looming Simandou volumes erode fundamentals.
• Managed money participants trimmed their net long exposure, signalling profit-taking aligned with price action rather than a broader shift in market conviction.
• The DCE-SGX spread lost momentum after rejecting the upper Bollinger band, breaking below key MAs and opening room for consolidation or further downside.

• Crude oil futures were edging higher Friday, but broader concerns over a looming surplus in the new year left prices softer on the week and languishing at just above post-pandemic lows.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $60.47/b (2007 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $59.82/b, while Feb26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $56.54/b against a previous close of $56/b.
• Markets found only limited support over the week from geopolitical events, with the IEA’s forecast of a near 4 million bpd glut in 2026 supressing prices.

• Gold (GOLD COMDTY) keeps rising steadily, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) rebalances became effective on December 19th, after the Close.
• According to our model Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has plenty of room to rise higher, beyond 4.4k, on this leg, but after that point it could make a small pullback.
• The commodity is quite overbought, but based on the behavior witnessed in the past when the current WEEKLY trend pattern was encountered, it could rise to 4.6k in 6-8 weeks.

• Zimplats Holdings is a major platinum group metals (PGM) producer, strategically positioned on Zimbabwe’s Great Dyke, one of the world’s most significant PGM deposits. The company’s operations are characterized by shallow, mechanized, and low-cost mining methods, providing a competitive advantage.
• The company is currently navigating a challenging period of depressed PGM prices, which has impacted profitability and led to cost-cutting measures. However, Zimplats is simultaneously implementing a substantial US$1.8 billion expansion strategy aimed at developing new mines, expanding its smelter, and investing in sustainable projects like a solar power plant to secure long-term growth.
• Operating in Zimbabwe presents a unique set of risks and opportunities. While the country offers a rich resource base, the operating environment is subject to regulatory changes, including foreign ownership laws and currency controls, which can impact investor confidence and operational stability.

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