In today’s briefing:
- [IO Technicals] Near-Term Rally Fuelled by Restocking and Planned Output Cuts
- Tariffs, EUDR Delay, Weather, Weak Demand Weigh On Thailand’s Rubber Outlook
- (CLMT) Montana Renewables CEO on First-Mover Advantages and Coming SAF Supply Squeeze
- Evolution Petroleum Corp: Free Cash Flow Supports Dividend
- National Energy Services Reunited Corp: Tender Tailwinds Set Up Growth in 2026
- Institutions Chalk Up S$480M in Net Buying in Early October
[IO Technicals] Near-Term Rally Fuelled by Restocking and Planned Output Cuts
- Iron ore futures rallied as Chinese steel mills restocked post-Golden Week holiday, despite weak margins and persisting trade policy uncertainty.
- Managed money participants expanded net long positions, signalling sustained bullish conviction.
- The 65%-62% spread fell sharply while the 62%-58% spread surged, marking pronounced divergence in grade spreads following the post-holiday sessions.
Tariffs, EUDR Delay, Weather, Weak Demand Weigh On Thailand’s Rubber Outlook
- Exports plunge 43% from February peak, hitting mid-year lows
- Trump tariffs, weak Chinese demand deepen pressure on shipments
- Thailand players, well-prepared for EUDR, upset over the recent update from the EU
(CLMT) Montana Renewables CEO on First-Mover Advantages and Coming SAF Supply Squeeze
- On the latest WTR Small-Cap Spotlight, we were joined by Bruce Fleming, Chief Executive Officer of Montana Renewables and our host, Tim Gerdeman, WTR’s Vice- Chair & Co-Founder, and Chief Marketing Officer.
- Montana Renewables (MR) is an unrestricted subsidiary (private JV) of Calumet (NASDAQ: CLMT) and the first large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producer in the US.
Fleming described MR as Montana’s largest agricultural investment.
Evolution Petroleum Corp: Free Cash Flow Supports Dividend
- Evolution’s business strategy is built upon three key pillars, including growing the asset base through accretive producing property acquisitions and low-risk organic development, distributing cash to shareholders through common stock dividends, and maintaining a conservative balance sheet.
- Our FY26 free cash flow estimate implies a dividend coverage ratio of 1.3x.
- On September 30, 2025, Evolution paid its 48th consecutive quarterly dividend in the amount of $0.12 per share.
National Energy Services Reunited Corp: Tender Tailwinds Set Up Growth in 2026
- Tender tailwinds are beginning to push NESR toward its goal of reaching an annual revenue threshold of $2 billion.
- The tailwinds include recent awards and a backlog of new business opportunities. For reference, our current FY25 revenue estimate is ~$1.3 billion.
- Since April 2025, NESR has announced contract awards totaling more than $600 million.
Institutions Chalk Up S$480M in Net Buying in Early October
- Institutions net bought S$481.3 million in Singapore stocks, with Marco Polo Marine and Frencken Group leading in net buying.
- Marco Polo Marine secured S$100 million in ship chartering contracts and expanded its fleet with new vessels.
- Frencken Group focuses on sustainable expansion with new manufacturing facilities and aims to boost semiconductor competitiveness by 2027.
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