Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Iron Ore, Waaree Energies, Crude Oil, Verallia, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Sintana Energy , Pan African Resources, Sailfish Royalty and more

• SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
• Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
• MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.

• Waaree Energies posted exceptional Q4 and FY25 results, reporting a 72.6% YoY increase in EBITDA and a robust order book of INR 47,000 crores.
• The company continues to ramp up its manufacturing capacities, with a focus on solar cells, modules, and energy storage, positioning itself as a leader in India’s solar transition.
• Strong operational performance, strategic investments in green energy, and a solid order book enhance confidence in Waaree’s growth prospects for FY26 and beyond.

• U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.
• Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.
• While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.

• Waaree Energies is rapidly expanding, targeting 21 GW solar modules, 11.4 GW cells, and 6 GW ingots by FY27
• The company boasts a robust Rs 47,000 crore order book, with 57% international and 43% domestic market share
• Waaree diversifies into batteries, green hydrogen, and inverters, while mitigating risks via local production

• Verallia, a global leader in glass packaging, recently reported its financial results for the fiscal year 2024.
• The company’s extensive footprint includes operations in 12 countries with 35 plants and 64 furnaces, supported by a customer base of over 10,000.
• In 2024, Verallia’s sales were distributed across several segments, including still wine (32%), spirits (16%), and food (17%).

• RSS-4 prices near stable around INR 198/kg for past ten days  
• Kerala farmers engaged in rainguarding in right earnest  
• RRII devises process for extracting top-quality rubber from skim latex  

• Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
• Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
• With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.

• The Capricornus 1-X exploration well on PEL 85 (bp/Eni/Rhino) found 38 m of net pay, with the reservoir showing good petrophysical properties and no observed water contact.
• The well achieved a surface-constrained flow rate in excess of 11,000 bbl/d.
• The light 37° API oil exhibited limited associated gas with less than 2% CO2 and no hydrogen sulphide.

Pan African’s headline EPS (HEPS) for H125 appeared to show a decline of 43.7% y-o-y relative to its (restated) prior year number. However, if the loss attributable to its Mintails contract liability and its 5.6% (4,779oz) under-sale of gold relative to production are stripped out, we calculate that its normalised HEPS number was c 2.78c and almost exactly in line with our prior expectations (see Exhibit 2). We have reduced our production expectation for the full year by 2.7%. Nevertheless, production in H225 is anticipated to rise 43.0% compared to H125 and is the perfect springboard for PAF to attain our (upgraded) normalised HEPS forecast of 11.19c in FY26 (which is slightly conservative within the consensus range; see Exhibit 6). Our FY25e normalised HEPS forecast remains unchanged.

• Sailfish Royalty reported Q4 and 2024 financial results that missed our estimates due to weak silver production from Mako Mining.
• The Spring Valley Project is advancing ahead of schedule, and thus, we have pulled our first production start date forward by three quarters.
• Please refer to our Spring Valley Updates section.