In today’s briefing:
- Will A Saudi Arabian Investment Company Save Kum Yang From Delisting?
- Akzo Nobel: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Focus On China’s Domestic Consumption Pay Off?
- Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations
- ArcelorMittal: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its EAF Ramp-Up & Trade Tailwinds Are Fueling a Steel Revival!
- Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds
- FISH: Spring Valley Approved for Production; Increasing Target
- kopi-C with Seatrium Limited – How Seatrium is Building a Global Engineering Brand from a Singapore Dock
- U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage
- Var Energi – Will Its Focus On Exploration & Resource Development Pay Off?
- Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Increasing the size of the prize
Will A Saudi Arabian Investment Company Save Kum Yang From Delisting?
- In this insight, we discuss whether a Saudi Arabian investment company (SKAEEB) could save Kum Yang (001570 KS) from delisting.
- There are several aspects of this deal with SKAEEB that are a bit fishy.
- 1) A 50% Market Premium is Not Justified; 2) Does SKAEEB have enough money? 3) Control does not change
Akzo Nobel: Initiation of Coverage- Will Its Focus On China’s Domestic Consumption Pay Off?
- Akzo Nobel’s results for the first quarter of 2025 demonstrated resilience amidst a challenging economic backdrop.
- The company reported flat organic sales with a slight volume decline of 2%, offset by a positive price/mix of 2%.
- This was partly due to strong pricing strategies and cost reduction efforts that mitigated softer market conditions and inflationary pressures.
Rio Tinto: Status Quo New CEO and Q2/25 Operations
- The company reported Q2/25 production, with decent growth for iron ore, copper, aluminum and precious metals as expected, and guidance maintained for all divisions
- A new CEO announced yesterday, Mr. Simon Trott, is head of Rio’s iron ore segment with 20 years at the company, not indicating any major shake-up of the corporate culture
- We remain cautious given potential for a reversal of recent jumps in iron ore and copper, and a weak medium-term outlook for the former, while Rio’s valuation remains moderate
ArcelorMittal: Initiation of Coverage- Why Its EAF Ramp-Up & Trade Tailwinds Are Fueling a Steel Revival!
- ArcelorMittal’s first quarter 2025 performance presents a mixed bag of accomplishments and ongoing challenges.
- Safety remains a major priority, with the company focusing on implementing strategic changes to achieve zero fatalities and serious injuries, aiming for complete transformation over a three-year period.
- Financially, the quarter exhibited robust operational performance with strong cash flows, particularly highlighted by exceptional results from the company’s Mining segment in Liberia.
Rio Tinto Q2 2025 Production Update: Copper Leads, Iron Ore Rebounds
- Copper strength continues, driven by the Oyu Tolgoi ramp-up and Arcadium integration, with volumes trending toward the higher end of guidance.
- Rio Tinto is gradually shifting its portfolio toward copper and lithium to reduce reliance on iron ore and align with energy transition demand.
- FY25 guidance remains intact across key commodities, with improved operating momentum and diversified growth positioning the company for a resilient second half.
FISH: Spring Valley Approved for Production; Increasing Target
- What you need to know: • Sailfish announced that the BLM has approved Solidus Resources (the operator) to construct and operate the Spring Valley Gold Project.
- • This marks the final approval for the construction and future operation of the project.
- • Mako reported strong production results in Q2, posting 10.9Koz of gold (vs. 11.5Koz expected) and 12.5Koz of silver (vs. 10.5Koz expected) • Given the advancement at Spring Valley, increased gold and silver prices, and continued M&A in the sector, we are increasing our target price.
kopi-C with Seatrium Limited – How Seatrium is Building a Global Engineering Brand from a Singapore Dock
- Seatrium, formed in 2023 from Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine, focuses on global integration and energy infrastructure.
- Seatrium achieved a full-year profit of S$157 million in FY2024, reversing a S$2.0 billion loss in FY2023.
- As of 1Q 2025, Seatrium’s net order book stood at S$21.3 billion, with 26 projects until 2031.
U.S. Tariff Escalation: Credit Implications for Brazilian Companies in Our Coverage
- Brazilian Credits in Our Coverage Show Resilience, as U.S. Tariffs Likely to Have a Modest Impact Despite Limited Macro Policy Flexibility
- Suzano is most exposed to U.S. tariffs, but global scale, cost leadership, and FX tailwinds help cushion the impact. Gerdau could benefit from tighter U.S. supply conditions in the US.
- CSN has just 4% U.S. exposure, with limited risk unless quotas tighten. Minerva’s 5% is manageable, supported by a diversified export base that enables flexible rerouting.
Var Energi – Will Its Focus On Exploration & Resource Development Pay Off?
- Var Energi reported robust first-quarter 2025 results, reflecting strong operational and financial performance amidst a challenging market environment.
- The company demonstrated resilience and flexibility, leveraging its diversified asset base and strategic partnerships, notably with its major shareholder Eni.
- Positive highlights include Var Energi’s strong production and financial performance, with production at 272,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and cash flow from operations post-tax of $1.3 billion.
Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Increasing the size of the prize
- • Corcel has updated the prospectivity of its three Angolan blocks, following reinterpretation of legacy seismic and enhanced Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (eFTG) data.
- The revised analysis indicates more pre-salt and post-salt leads and prospects than previously anticipated.
- • At KON-16, five pre-salt leads and prospects have been identified, each estimated to hold 20–300 mmbbl of prospective resources, compared to three pre-salt prospects with 300 mmbbl recoverable estimates previously.
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