In today’s briefing:
- Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths
- EIA, OPEC, and IEA Differ on Crude Oil Demand Outlook but Align on Asia-Led Demand Growth
- Oil futures: Crude down after Trump says India to halt Russian imports
- Shield or Strategy? EU’s Steel Tariffs Double as a Bargaining Chip with Beijing
- Iron Ore Faces Renewed Downside Amid Weak Margins and Rising Supply Concerns
- MTT: High Exploration Potential and Cash Generation
- New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Farming out New Zealand appraisal assets to grow production
- Polarean Imaging Plc – Friday Take Away: 10 October 2025
Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths
- As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths – to all countries.
- Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
- The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.
EIA, OPEC, and IEA Differ on Crude Oil Demand Outlook but Align on Asia-Led Demand Growth
- Global oil demand growth remains Asia-led. However, surging non-OPEC supply and swelling inventories threaten price stability, even as China’s stockpiling and resilient consumption cushion downside pressure.
- EIA, OPEC, and IEA see diverging oil market paths, with non-OECD demand strong but excess supply, high inventories, and soft gas prices signalling a market leaning toward surplus.
- While Asia powers demand growth, mounting supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, and elevated inventories weigh on prices, keeping crude markets stable yet tilted bearish into 2026.
Oil futures: Crude down after Trump says India to halt Russian imports
- Crude oil futures were lower Thursday as a sharp retreat in US crude runs unwound earlier gains stemming from US President Donald Trump’s claims he had persuaded India’s Prime Minister to halt purchases of Russian crude.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.18/b (2013 BST) versus Wednesday’s settle of $61.91/b, while Nov25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.60/b against a previous close of $58.27/b.
- Trump said late Wednesday that Indian PM Narendra Modi had pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, while the President said he would seek a similar commitment from China.
Shield or Strategy? EU’s Steel Tariffs Double as a Bargaining Chip with Beijing
- The EU plans to impose 25–50% duties on Chinese steel to protect domestic producers from cheap imports and high decarbonisation costs.
- Analysts expect China’s steel exports to reach 120 million tons, intensifying global overcapacity, pressuring margins, and prompting protectionist responses worldwide.
- EU tariffs on Chinese steel are unlikely to materially impact overall exports but function as strategic leverage, potentially reshaping flows and future negotiations.
Iron Ore Faces Renewed Downside Amid Weak Margins and Rising Supply Concerns
- Iron ore futures recorded a weekly loss as renewed trade tensions and weak mill margins overshadowed a brief post-holiday demand recovery.
- Managed money participants increased their net long positions, reflecting continued confidence in the bullish outlook.
- Demand for higher-grade ore remains subdued as weak mill margins persist, keeping the 65%-62% spread under sustained downward pressure in the near term.
MTT: High Exploration Potential and Cash Generation
- What you need to know: • Magna Terra is exploring two highly prospective projects in eastern Canada, the Humber Copper-Cobalt project in Newfoundland and the Rocky Brook Gold-Copper project in New Brunswick.
- • The Company is supported by a successful project generation business model, which has provided over $5.8M since 2019, with a substantial $7.1M expected by 2029.
- • With a market cap of just ~$11M and significant cash inflows over the next four years, MTT is largely undervalued in our view.
New Zealand Energy Corp. (TSX-V: NZ): Farming out New Zealand appraisal assets to grow production
- Monumental Energy will fund New Zealand Energy’s (NZE) share of costs for the workover of four wells—Waihapa-H1, Ngaere-1, Ngaere-2, and Ngaere-3.
- In return, Monumental will earn a 25% royalty on NZE’s production share, post full recovery of its capital investment, which will be repaid from 75% of NZE’s net revenue interest.
- The total investment is modest, at
Polarean Imaging Plc – Friday Take Away: 10 October 2025
- Friday Takeaway—delving a little deeper into UK small caps Friday Takeaway from UK Small Caps This will delve a little deeper on individual companies and focus on non-house stocks under £200m market capitalisation to raise awareness 10th October 2025 Alphabetically arranged Share prices and market capitalisations taken from Alpha Terminal from the current price on the day of publication.
- Top three shareholders are taken from the websites of the companies that we are writing about, unless there is a more up to date TR-1 notification RNS announcement.
- Positive news seems to have had limited impact AEO Surprise Party POLX Deep Breath XSG Paid Laundering
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