In today’s briefing:
- MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony’s Offer
- Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations
- [Earnings Preview] Occidental’s Q2 Earnings Under Pressure but Rebound Hopes Build
- MED MAST.L Update Megawatt Momentum 3172025
- [IO Technicals 2025/31] Muted Policy Support and Soft Demand Weigh on IO Prices
- Asahi Holdings (5857 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- RIO: Increasing Target Price on Construction Progress
- TotalEnergies Is Quietly Building An Energy Empire Across LNG
- Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion
- Itochu Enex (8133 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): 29th August Vote On Harmony’s Offer
- Back on the 27th May 2025, dual-listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
- Harmony offered US$12.25 for each MAC Share, a 20.7% premium to last close. The A$ consideration for MAC CDIs pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate around the Record Date.
- A copy of the Circular is now available, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. Barrenjoey, the FA, says fair & reasonable. 22.54% of shares out are supportive.
Rio Tinto (RIO AU): Post-Earnings Drop Exceeds Expectations
- Context:Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reported 1H25 results on 30 July, cutting its interim dividend by 16%.
- Rio Tinto’s share price fell more than expected after earnings, exceeding both historical and implied moves. A surprise US copper tariff announcement further amplified the decline.
- This Insight breaks down drivers of the post-earnings move and evaluates the potential outcome of a short-vol strategy — offering a practical case study for refining similar trades.
[Earnings Preview] Occidental’s Q2 Earnings Under Pressure but Rebound Hopes Build
- Occidental’s Q2 2025 revenue is expected to drop 9.1% QoQ and 9.4% YoY. Its EPS is projected to fall by 66.7% QoQ and 71.8% YoY.
- Occidental expects Q2 performance to be weighed down by lower production and weaker commodity realizations, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Options activity and analyst outlooks suggest a potential rebound if earnings meet or beat subdued expectations.
MED MAST.L Update Megawatt Momentum 3172025
- Mast Energy Developments plc (MAST.L, ESCC Transition) is a flexible power generation plant owner, developer and operator targeting >300 MW of new, grid critical, generation for the UK flexible power market by 2030.
- Our current value range is based only on the first 150 MW.
- Since our initiation MAST recently bought exclusive rights to five sub‑5 MW flexible‑generation sites from Green Light Energy (GLE).
[IO Technicals 2025/31] Muted Policy Support and Soft Demand Weigh on IO Prices
- The Politburo signalled only mild policy easing on July 30, disappointing investors hoping for stronger measures to address China’s property slump.
- China’s July NBS Manufacturing PMI fell, highlighting fading pre-tariff export momentum and persistently weak domestic demand conditions.
- Prices are below the 9‑day moving average, and a bearish MACD crossover suggests a potential short‑term pullback.
Asahi Holdings (5857 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- Revenue increased to JPY137.1bn, a 48.6% YoY growth, driven by higher recovery volumes and improved profitability.
- Operating profit rose to JPY5.9bn, a 63.9% YoY increase, with significant gains in electronics and dental sectors.
- Precious Metals business saw substantial YoY operating profit growth, despite declines in catalyst area recovery volume and profit.
RIO: Increasing Target Price on Construction Progress
- What you need to know: • Rio2 provided an update on the construction progress at the Fenix Gold Project.
- As of the end of Q2, construction is 41% complete and remains on track and on budget for first gold in Q1/26.
- • With Q2 behind us, RIO approaches an inflection point of becoming a gold producer and taking advantage of the elevated gold price.
TotalEnergies Is Quietly Building An Energy Empire Across LNG
- TotalEnergies released its financial results for the second quarter and first half of 2025, navigating a turbulent macroeconomic and geopolitical environment.
- Challenges such as the Israel-Iran conflict and a US tariff war created market volatility, with oil prices fluctuating between $60 to $81 per barrel within the quarter.
- The limited price increases during the Iran crisis signaled adequate oil market supply, influenced by OPEC+ decisions and slowed global demand due to economic conditions.
Valero Energy Corporation: Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Expansion
- Valero Energy Corporation’s second quarter of 2025 financial performance indicates a blend of strong operational execution with challenges in certain segments.
- On the positive side, Valero set a record for refining throughput rate in the U.S. Gulf Coast, showcasing the efficacy of their investments in optimization projects.
- This operational efficiency was supported by robust refining margins, largely driven by strong product demand and low inventory levels globally, particularly in diesel, which saw sales volumes increase by about 10% year-over-year.
Itochu Enex (8133 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
- In Q1 FY03/26, Itochu Enex reported sales revenue of JPY203.2bn (-3.7% YoY) and operating profit of JPY6.0bn (+10.2% YoY).
- The Home-Life Division’s operating profit rose 267.3% YoY to JPY404mn, driven by increased LP gas sales volume.
- For FY03/26, Itochu Enex forecasts a 2.0% YoY decline in operating profit to JPY24.5bn, maintaining a dividend of JPY62 per share.
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