In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- Palliser Capital Goes Activist on LG Chem
- China’s Expanding Crude Inventories Keep Oil Prices in Check
- Oil futures: Crude sees late-day rebound amid trade headwinds, supply glut
- Vietnam Rubber Market Recalibrates On Firming Prices, China Demand
- Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!
- High Trading Activity Stocks Outside the Big-Caps
- Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton
- Eurasia Mining – Update
- Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 20 October
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
- With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
- There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.
Palliser Capital Goes Activist on LG Chem
- Palliser Capital started to go activist on LG Chem. According to Palliser Capital, LG Chem’s share price is trading at a 74% discount to its NAV.
- Palliser Capital proposed improving the composition of the board of directors, restructuring the executive compensation system to align with shareholder interests, and higher share buybacks.
- Our updated NAV analysis of LG Chem suggests implied price of 613,438 won per share, which represents a 57% higher levels than current levels.
China’s Expanding Crude Inventories Keep Oil Prices in Check
- China’s aggressive crude stockpiling through 2025 has quietly reduced global supply, cushioning oil prices against a surplus-driven downturn amid OPEC+ supply hikes.
- By absorbing excess barrels when prices fall and easing purchases when they rise, China’s flexible buying strategy has emerged as a stabilising force in global oil markets.
- With inventories estimated between 1.4 and 2 billion barrels, China’s future buying pace will hinge on price trends, geopolitical pressures, and internal reserve targets.
Oil futures: Crude sees late-day rebound amid trade headwinds, supply glut
- Crude oil futures initially struggled Tuesday as global trade tensions and supply glut fears continued to drag on prices before a late-day rebound lifted benchmarks into positive territory on the day.
- Front-month Dec25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $61.37/b (2010 BST) versus Monday’s settle of $61.01/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $57.32/b against a previous close of $57.02/b.
- Oil markets continued to face growing headwinds, including the latest round of anti-trade measures between Washington and Beijing, putting global economic growth at risk.
Vietnam Rubber Market Recalibrates On Firming Prices, China Demand
- Vietnam exports 1.12 million tons of rubber in Jan–Aug
- Exports to China up 5.9% in volume; value surges 22%
- Typhoon Kajiki causes brief disruptions, but exports stay firm
Cleveland-Cliffs Drops A Bombshell: Rare Earths, Auto Demand & Tariffs Drive MASSIVE Jump!
- Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.
- This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.
- For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.
High Trading Activity Stocks Outside the Big-Caps
- Among Singapore’s 100 most traded stocks, 22 have a combined ADT of S$42.9 million and market cap of S$8.15 billion.
- Industrials, Technology, and Energy sectors make up nearly 80% of these stocks, reflecting global trends in infrastructure, AI, and renewables.
- The 22 stocks recorded a net institutional inflow of S$132.35 million in 2025, led by CSE Global.
Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton
- Following our insight, “Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton,” copper has taken a bit of a breather at 10,600 USD/Ton.
- We assess all supply-related shocks that have occurred this year and summarize their impact on the copper market’s supply. A deficit of 500k tons in CY26 is on the cards.
- Beneficiaries of the copper rally are Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN), which are our top picks.
Eurasia Mining – Update
- Eurasia Mining joined AIM in 1999 as a Russia-focused metals and mining company.
- Initially in a JV with Anglo Platinum, the company undertook extensive exploration (gold, gold-copper & PGMs) in the Urals and the Kola Peninsula.
- This led to the West Kytlim and Monchetundra discoveries that Eurasia went on to acquire.
Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 20 October
- US base oils prices rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially for Group II light-grade export prices.
- Firmer margins point to steady-to-tight supply-demand fundamentals at a time of year when they typically start to weaken.
- Firmer margins incentivize refiners to maintain or raise output.
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