In today’s briefing:
- OCI Global’s Merger
- 2026 High Conviction Idea: Tata Steel’s Raw‑Material Moat and Long‑Product Expansion
- Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton
- Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics
- Chevron Is Playing the Long Game in Venezuela — But Will It Win?
- Event Driven: The Adani Cement Empire’s Merger Analysis
- Rajshree Polypack (RPPL): Robust Fundamentals Ahead
- Commodity Analysis Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe CFR Futures – (TIOc1)
- Oil futures: Crude holds gains as Venezuelan exports slump
OCI Global’s Merger
- In what can only be described as a masterclass in public equity value destruction disguised as strategic transformation, OCI Global (Euronext: OCI) announced on December 9, 2025, a proposed merger with Orascom Construction.
- This merger represents capitulation by independent directors and a betrayal of minority shareholders at an exchange ratio of 0.4634 Orascom Construction shares per OCI share, implying a valuation of approximately €3.73 per OCI share, prior to a 15% withholding tax. Post-tax, it is worth €3.17 on a stock trading at €3.00.
- The deal delivers a cash-rich, debt-free liquidating balance sheet into the hands of a controlling shareholder at a deep discount while stranding minority shareholders in illiquid foreign-listed paper with tax leakage.
2026 High Conviction Idea: Tata Steel’s Raw‑Material Moat and Long‑Product Expansion
- India led volume stability, improving deliveries, and captive raw materials position Tata Steel to convert the 2026 steel upcycle into earnings leverage.
- EU policy tightening and CBAM-linked barriers improve Netherlands pricing power, supporting a European turnaround despite continued structural drag from the UK.
- Attractive valuation metrics, low PEG, manageable leverage, and sector outperformance make Tata Steel a high-conviction risk-adjusted play for 2026.
Copper Mine By Mine Supply Challenges For Everyone: Update As Copper Is Set to Break 12k USD/Ton
- We update the expansion plans of all listed companies under our coverage one by one to capture the extent of the copper supply shortages the world will experience.
- These listed companies account for ~40% of the global supply, providing a robust sample for analyzing current supply issues, as copper is set to exceed USD 12,000/ton.
- We like copper names with a solid supply story and low on the cost curve, like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)
Shandong Gold: Earnings Inflection Underpriced by Index Mechanics
- Earnings inflection is underway: Spot gold (>USD 4,400/oz), rising self-mined output (60t in 2025E), and mix shift drive a step-change in EBITDA and cash flow from FY25 onward.
- Valuation disconnect persists: Shandong Gold trades at ~3× EV/EBITDA—lowest in the China/HK gold peer set—despite leverage peaking in FY25 and de-gearing visible into FY26.
- Index mechanics mask upside: Exclusion from GDX due to revenue-purity rules limits passive flows, leaving scope for active-driven re-rating as earnings and margins normalise
Chevron Is Playing the Long Game in Venezuela — But Will It Win?
- Chevron’s century-long presence in Venezuela is turning into a high-stakes test of geopolitics, oil strategy, and corporate resilience.
- As the U.S. government doubled down on sanctions targeting the Maduro regime, Chevron aligned closely with the Trump administration to remain the last major American oil company with operations in the country.
- CEO Mike Wirth has played a careful long game, using diplomatic leverage and legal maneuvering to secure what he sees as a “catbird seat” over some of the world’s richest oil reserves.
Event Driven: The Adani Cement Empire’s Merger Analysis
- On December 22, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) board approved merging ACC Ltd (ACC IN) and Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) via a share swap to create a unified Indian cement giant.
- The deal simplifies structures and offers operational synergies, providing Orient shareholders a premium while remaining value-neutral for ACC but accretive for Ambuja.
- The consolidation targets capacity expansion to 155 MTPA by FY28 and operational savings of INR 100 per tonne, bolstering long-term profitability.
Rajshree Polypack (RPPL): Robust Fundamentals Ahead
- RPPL has had a volatile earnings over the past one year due to losses in its new Olive Ecopak venture. However, Olive Ecopak is on track to breakeven by Q4.
- The core earnings grew lower than expected due to 1) decline in raw material prices, 2) unseasonal monsoon and 3) drop in orders from a key beverage client.
- On the other hand, injection molding and exports revenue grew rapidly. Even the barrier packaging segment grew well. Despite challenges in Q2FY26, RPPL’s aggregate volume grew 7% YoY.
Commodity Analysis Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe CFR Futures – (TIOc1)
- The analysis of Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe CFR Futures (TIOc1) is performed across four key technical viewpoints.
- According to Graph 1 (August 12th, 2025, to November 11th, 2025) the market entered a consolidation phase from August 12th until August 29th, 2025.
- Thereafter, the price from around $102 rose above $106 on September 9th , before gradually retreating and closing the period at $103.56 on November 11th, 2025.
Oil futures: Crude holds gains as Venezuelan exports slump
- Crude oil futures were edging higher Tuesday as geopolitical events continued to vie with supply glut fears to set the tone during the shortened holiday week.
- Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.38/b (1900 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $62.07/b, while Feb26 NYMEX WTI was at $58.35/b against a previous close of $58.01/b.
- Benchmarks consolidated four days of gains, having traded at around 10-day highs on Monday, as the clampdown on Venezuelan crude threatens 100s of thousands of barrels, with tanker owners scared away from the region.
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