In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations
- EC Simplifies EUDR For Industry, But Smallholders Still A Concern
- [Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- HighPeak Energy, Inc – Estimate Update
- Journey Energy, Inc. – Long-Lived Legacy Asset Production Base Supports Funding Duvernay Growth
- LYB: Tariff-Driven Economic Uncertainty and Its Amplified Impact on Demand & Margins!
- Medco Energi
- Neste Corporation – Pioneer with a Leading Global Renewable Fuels Platform Repositioning for Growth
- Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance
[Quiddity Index] MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25 Leaderboard: Flow Expectations
- The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
- This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. We expect there will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
- We expect one-way flows of US$122mm for the June 2025 rebal which translates to a turnover of 2%.
EC Simplifies EUDR For Industry, But Smallholders Still A Concern
- Large companies can reuse existing DDS for reimported goods
- Companies can submit due diligence statements annually
- ANRPC S-G asks firms to join initiatives to empower smallholders
[Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds
- Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.
- Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.
- Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Fosun International, Pakuwon Jati, Adani Green Energy, ReNew Energy
- The US and China are set to commence trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will travel to Switzerland later this week to meet with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter, and also meet Chinese officials to discuss economic and trade matters, according to separate announcements by the Treasury Department and Office of the Trade Representative.
- Meanwhile, Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng will visit Switzerland during May 9-12th, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
HighPeak Energy, Inc – Estimate Update
- We are updating our estimates to reflect lower NYMEX oil price assumptions for FY25 and FY26. OPEC+’s decision to return 411,000 Bo/d in May and 411,000 Bo/d in June.
- The supply adjustments and global economic uncertainty have increased oil price volatility.
- The front-month WTI contract averaged $62.96/bbl in April, down from $75.15/bbl in January 2025.
Journey Energy, Inc. – Long-Lived Legacy Asset Production Base Supports Funding Duvernay Growth
- The Duvernay program is expected to deliver light oil-weighted production growth in 2H25 and accelerate the drilling program into 2026 with joint venture (JV) partner Spartan Delta.
- Recent well results have been promising at ~1,100 BOE/d (IP-30 rate), with high liquids and light oil at ~90% of production.
- The diversified production base consists of low- decline assets and delivers stable cash flow that can be reinvested in higher-return Duvernay development, which should strengthen the balance sheet.
LYB: Tariff-Driven Economic Uncertainty and Its Amplified Impact on Demand & Margins!
- LyondellBasell Industries’ latest financial results and strategic initiatives provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current standing and future trajectory.
- These insights are instrumental for stakeholders assessing the firm’s investment potential, offset by industry uncertainties and strategic challenges.
- On the positive side, LyondellBasell continues to demonstrate strength in its operational capabilities, particularly with a strong emphasis on safety, reflected by a commendably low total recordable incident rate.
Medco Energi
- Medco Energi has announced a cash tender offer to repurchase up to all the outstanding USD 242.3 mn MEDCIJ 7.375 ’26s and USD 418.7 mn MEDCIJ 6.375 ’27s.
- It is also concurrently seeking to issue new USD 400 mn 5NC2 notes.
- In our view, the proposed transactions demonstrate Medco’s proactive management of its debt maturity profile.
Neste Corporation – Pioneer with a Leading Global Renewable Fuels Platform Repositioning for Growth
- Neste Corporation (NESTE-FI) (NTOIY-US) produces and markets renewable fuels and oil products globally and is an enabler of decarbonization across multiple industries.
- Originally founded as a traditional oil refiner in Finland, the company was an early adopter and pioneer in renewable fuels and related solutions, having started commercial production of renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in 2007- 2011.
- Neste’s “drop-in” fuels can reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by up to 80-90% compared with fossil fuel emissions.
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): ~12 mbbl/d in 1Q25. Re-iterating FY25 guidance
- 1Q25 production was ~12 mbbl/d, including 6,841 bbl/d in Gabon, 3,661 bbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1,492 bbl/d in Tunisia.
- Production in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea was previously reported by BW Energy and Kosmos Energy.
- Equatorial Guinea output was temporarily impacted by unplanned downtime at the Ceiba Cluster, but operations are now back online.
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