In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
- MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade
- Merger Arb Mondays (15 Sep) – Santos, Soft99, Technopro, Mandom, Shengjing Bank, Dongfeng Motor
- Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing
- Curator’s Cut: Critical Minerals’ Rise, SEA’s Digital Promise & IT Services in Flux
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile
- ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
- There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
- The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade
- There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
- There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.
Merger Arb Mondays (15 Sep) – Santos, Soft99, Technopro, Mandom, Shengjing Bank, Dongfeng Motor
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).
Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Chery Automobile (CH3456 CH), Zijin Gold (2579355D HK) and Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) IPOs. Hesai Group (HSAI US) H Share listing.
- Event-Driven developments: Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Fuji Oil Co Ltd (5017 JP), Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK), Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H (2066 HK).
Curator’s Cut: Critical Minerals’ Rise, SEA’s Digital Promise & IT Services in Flux
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we review the global focus on critical minerals, how ASEAN’s digital economy can grow amidst political uncertainty, and how IT services have fared with AI
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next
A/H Premium Tracker (To 12 Sep 2025): AH Premia Contract More, Spreads Volatile
- “Beautiful Skew” slightly visible but not huge, not consistent.On average, liquid Hs outperformed their As by 1.99% so +2.79% over 2 weeks.
- Last week’s long reco on China Communications Construction (1800 HK) gained just over 1% on the week in Hs and the H outperformed the A by 0.6% Friday to Friday.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
ENEOS Holdings (TSE: 5020): Cash Returns Support, Valuation Capped
- Business: Japan’s largest integrated energy group, ENEOS runs ~45% of national refining capacity, upstream assets, power generation, and holds 42% of JX Advanced Metals.
- Earnings (3Y): OP peaked at ¥504 bn in FY2023 on high oil prices, fell to ¥107 bn in FY2024 on inventory losses, and is guided to ¥300 bn in FY2025.
- Valuation & Risks: Trades at ~8× EV/EBITDA (~¥900/share), above our SOTP fair value (~¥690); key risks include crude volatility, shrinking domestic fuel demand, high leverage, and transition execution.
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