In today’s briefing:
- Glass Half Full: Arbitrage Opportunities in Verallia’s Tender Path
- Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks
- [IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories
- [IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists
- Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down
Glass Half Full: Arbitrage Opportunities in Verallia’s Tender Path
- BWGI’s tender offer for Verallia has secured regulatory approvals and board support. With strong financial backing and irrevocable commitments, the threshold for success is achievable but not guaranteed.
- While early entrants at €27 enjoy strong arbitrage returns, recent prices near €28.14 offer minimal spread. The current trade hinges on bump potential or long-term rerating prospects.
- Erallia trades at 6.3x EV/EBITDA vs. Vidrala’s 7.9x. The DCF fair value implies ~30% upside, making holding shares a credible strategy even if the offer fails or underwhelms.
Vedanta Demerger: Key Highlights, Value Drivers, and Risks
- Latest Update: NCLAT has stayed NCLT’s rejection, allowing Vedanta’s five-way demerger to proceed, with completion targeted by September 2025.
- Value Concentration: Over 85% of Vedanta’s SOTP value stems from Aluminium and Residual Vedanta, driven by strong EBITDA and asset base.
- Upside and Risks: SOTP suggests 20%+ upside, but risks include regulatory delays, execution slippage in aluminium/zinc projects, and commodity price volatility.
[IO Fundamentals 2025/22] PMI Data Divergence and Declining IO Inventories
- China’s NBS manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May, while Caixin PMI dropped sharply to 48.3 signaling the first contraction in 8 months.
- China’s industrial profits stagnated in April 2025, highlighting persistent challenges from weak demand, trade war tensions, and deflationary pressures.
- Iron ore inventories continued to decline amid slowing shipments and softer blast furnace demand, signaling ongoing destocking.
[IO Technicals 2025/23] Bearish Momentum Persists
- Iron ore supply remains steady despite falling Australian exports and surging Brazilian shipments. However, weak Chinese property demand continues to cloud the market outlook.
- Analysts at Singapore Ferrous Week trimmed 2025 iron ore surplus forecasts to 20–30 million tons, citing resilient demand, rising steel exports, and Australian supply disruptions.
- Prices remain below key moving averages, signalling downside momentum, while the MACD staying under its signal line reinforces the ongoing bearish outlook.
Higher Rubber Values Come In Handy For Vietnam, Though Volume Down
- During January-April 2025, exports at 452,866 tons, down 11% YoY
- January-April 2025 exports value at US$872.78 mn, up 20.4% YoY
- Vietnam Rubber Group reports net profit of US$45.4 mn in Q1 2025
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
