Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Hindustan Zinc, Ambuja Cements, Iron Ore, KEIWA , Subsea 7 SA, Barton Gold Holdings , Linde , Pulsar Helium, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

• As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)‘s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)‘s.
• Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
• Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 

• Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) has committed to a massive INR 30k−35k Crs (3.6−4.2 billion) expansion to double its metal production underpinned by record-low zinc costs and high silver contribution.
• This integrated, self-funded capacity doubling effort, coupled with aggressive decarbonization and the high-margin silver tailwind, fundamentally de-risks the long-term earnings trajectory.
• While the corporate restructuring remains an overhang, HZL’s strategic shift makes it a compelling, low-cost proxy for India’s industrial growth and the global silver bull cycle.

• Ambuja Cement has crossed the 100 MTPA capacity mark and is executing a roadmap for 140 MTPA by FY28 while targeting a INR1,500 per tonne EBITDA by the same year.
• The integration of multiple recent acquisitions, including Orient, Sanghi, and Penna, is crucial; Q2FY26 results will offer the first look into how the new consolidated entity handles initial integration costs.
• While Q1 FY26 set a high baseline, investors should  anticipate sequential dip in Q2 margins, viewing it as a short-term integration blip against a decade-defining capacity and cost rationalisation strategy.

• Negative steel mill margins will likely result in production cuts that could adversely impact the near-term demand for iron ore. 
• Beijing’s stricter stance on BHP and Simandou’s safety-related suspension are altering the iron ore power dynamics and tightening supply.
• Bearish MA crossover and weakening MACD signal fading momentum, with prices below key MAs, pointing to increasing downside pressure.

• KEIWA is a specialized manufacturer of functional and optical films, with a strong position in the growing market for advanced display technologies used in consumer electronics and automotive applications.
• Recent financial performance shows top-line growth driven by the Optical Products segment, but significant pressure on profitability with recurring profit and net income showing substantial year-over-year declines in 1H FY12/25.
• The company’s outlook is tied to the recovery of the clean energy and automotive sectors, alongside increasing demand for high-performance optical films. However, it faces risks from intense industry competition and price pressures.

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• The Saipem–Subsea7 merger delivers scale, €300m synergies, €43bn backlog, and balanced governance; Subsea7 shareholders secure 6.688x Saipem shares plus NOK 22.15 dividends, crystallizing immediate cash returns.
• Hedged arbitrage (long Subsea7, short Saipem, FX-hedged dividend) offers ~7–11% annualized returns under conservative assumptions, with optional leverage if short proceeds are usable; main risks stem from regulatory scrutiny.
• Key catalysts: UK CMA Phase 1 decision, Brazil CADE review, and Italy’s conditional approval. Spread at +4.3% adjusted offers attractive entry for patient investors seeking event-driven opportunities.

Since our last note on 12 May, Barton has continued to aggressively develop its assets in pursuit of its ambition to produce 150koz gold per year in a two-stage ‘hub and spoke’ model, leveraging its Central Gawler Mill (CGM) and a new future Tunkillia mill. To this end, it has a) continued extensive drilling at Tarcoola-Tolmer, b) acquired the Wudinna prospect for a likely consideration of A$7.5m, or A$15/oz (plus a further potential A$7.5m if it goes into production), c) completed a A$3.0m placing to fund reserve conversion upgrade drilling at Tunkillia as well as a JORC resource upgrade at Tarcoola and d) announced two resource upgrades at its Challenger mine adjacent to the CGM to increase its resource to over 300koz, including 194koz at 3.2g/t Au on existing open pit and underground development. Consequently, Barton has now commenced a definitive feasibility study on ‘Stage 1’ production at the CGM as well as resource upgrade drilling at Tunkillia’s ‘Starter Pits’ and the necessary baseline water monitoring programme to support a mining licence application in late CY26. As a result, its market capitalisation has increased from A$49m in January to A$282m now, and it has been accepted for inclusion into the S&P Dow Jones ASX All Ordinaries Index of the 500 largest companies in Australia.

Key points (machine generated)

• Linde is the largest global producer of industrial gases, crucial for manufacturing but representing a small cost percentage.
• The industry relies on local supply due to the inefficiency of transporting heavy gases over long distances.
• Linde’s business model includes on-site supply (25%), merchant deliveries (32%), and packaged customers (38%), achieving a 33% market share.

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• Laboratory analysis of gas samples from the Jetstream #1 well at Topaz shows sustained helium-3 concentrations ranging from 1.3 to 14.5 ppb, amongst the highest naturally occurring helium-3 levels publicly reported in a terrestrial reservoir.
• This is in addition to the measured 7-8% concentration of helium-4.
• Helium-3 was encountered across all tested intervals of Jetstream #1 suggesting a single homogeneous source of helium charging the reservoir, rather than sporadic pockets or contamination.

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