In today’s briefing:
- AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders
- Flagging a Recent IPO – Chagee (CHA) – Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers
- Lifenet Insurance Company (7157 JP) – Revitalizing Future Growth
- [Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds
- American Airlines Group: Network Expansion in Key Markets Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
- Hennge KK (4475 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
- Colgate-Palmolive: Leveraging Brand Strength & Innovation in Emerging Markets To Push For Growth!
- Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.
- FCN US: Segment Performance & Revenue Diversity As a Crucial Factor For Sustained Performance!
- Cadence Design Systems Pushes AI Frontiers But What Challenges Lie Ahead?
AMD Q1 2025 Earnings Review. Firing On All Cylinders
- AMD yesterday reported Q1 2025 revenues of $7.4 billion, up 36% YoY, down 3% QoQ and $300 million above the guided midpoint. Non-GAAP Gross margin was 50%, precisely as guided
- AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $7.4 billion, flat sequentially, together with gross margin of 43% incorporating the impact of an $800 million charge related to the latest China restrictions
- Enterprise server momentum, both cloud and on premise, is a major tailwind for AMD in 2025, far more so than any traction from its Instinct Accelerators. That comes in 2026.
Flagging a Recent IPO – Chagee (CHA) – Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers
- As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.
- Fad cycles may or may not have legs – see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.
- Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.
Lifenet Insurance Company (7157 JP) – Revitalizing Future Growth
- LIFENET is a pure-play online life insurance company with a solid track record, revamping its strategy to revitalize growth.
- The company has initiated a three-pronged strategy, encompassing tech & services, rebranding, and an ‘embedded’ strategy to integrate life insurance products seamlessly into partner digital ecosystems with engaged customers.
- Key partnerships with KDDI Group (9433) and SMBC Group provide a competitive advantage, and the group credit life insurance offered to mortgage customers of au Jibun Bank, KDDI Group’s online banking subsidiary, has the hallmarks of a new earnings pillar.
[Earnings Preview] Better Oil and Gas Prices to Lift Occidental’s Revenue Amid Persistent Headwinds
- Occidental’s Q1 revenue and EPS are projected to rise 14.4% and 23.8% YoY, driven by strong Permian production and improved oil and gas price realisations.
- Occidental’s average realised global oil price rose 1.9% QoQ, while NGL and natural gas prices surged 19% and 63.1%, respectively.
- Occidental’s average index prices for WTI and Brent rose 1.6% and 1.2% QoQ, respectively, while natural gas prices saw a sharp 36.1% increase.
American Airlines Group: Network Expansion in Key Markets Fueling Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
- American Airlines Group recently reported its first quarter 2025 financial results amid challenging economic conditions which affected the overall industry demand.
- Throughout the conference call, management conveyed both challenges faced and strategic initiatives undertaken to navigate the difficult environment.
- The company reported a first-quarter GAAP net loss of $473 million, or an adjusted loss of $386 million excluding special items, marking a noteworthy setback.
Hennge KK (4475 JP): 1H FY09/25 flash update
- Revenue increased 33.6% YoY to JPY5.2bn, with HENNGE One business revenue at JPY4.9bn (+35.2% YoY).
- Operating profit rose 72.6% YoY to JPY1.1bn, with a margin of 21.5% (+4.9pp YoY).
- Gross profit was JPY4.5bn (+36.8% YoY), and SG&A expenses increased to JPY3.4bn (+28.0% YoY).
Colgate-Palmolive: Leveraging Brand Strength & Innovation in Emerging Markets To Push For Growth!
- Colgate-Palmolive’s latest earnings reveals a mixed performance for the first quarter of 2025, underscoring both opportunities and challenges that the company faces in its strategic operations.
- The company’s management approached the volatile economic environment with a sense of preparedness, though consumer behavior and global economic pressures have presented some difficulties.
- One of the significant challenges highlighted is the impact of a weaker consumer market, particularly evident in volume growth struggles.
Novatek (3034.TT): US Tariffs Remain the Key Uncertainty.
- 2024 Cash Dividend is NT$28, with payout ratio slightly increased to 83.76%. 2Q25 Guidance Revenue: NT$26.5–27.7bn / US$828–866mn (vs. ~US$830mn in 1Q24), Gross Margin is 37–40% and OPM is 18.5–21.5%.
- 100% of sales and cost are denominated in USD. A 1% appreciation of the TWD implies a 0.2% decrease in net income.
- 2H25 Outlook: Visibility remains low, and tariffs continue to be the key uncertainty.
FCN US: Segment Performance & Revenue Diversity As a Crucial Factor For Sustained Performance!
- FTI Consulting delivered a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025 with both positive highlights and some areas of concern.
- The company’s revenues stood at $898.3 million, representing a 3.3% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.
- On a sequential basis compared to the previous quarter, revenues saw a marginal increase.
Cadence Design Systems Pushes AI Frontiers But What Challenges Lie Ahead?
- Cadence Design Systems, Inc. presented a robust performance in the first quarter of 2025, surpassing guidance across all major financial metrics.
- The company’s revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, with a notable 34% increase in non-GAAP EPS, prompting an upward revision of the annual financial forecast.
- This performance was primarily driven by sustained demand for Cadence’s innovative technologies and solutions.
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