Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Bitcoin: HOW TO LOSE MONEY IN A BULL MARKET!! and more

• Bitcoin has seen a historic price decline since October.  The fear gauge is higher than at any time in its history, and technical indicators show further downside is likely.
• The bitcoin ecosystem is highly leveraged and has seen miners and related single-stock ETFs fall dramatically.  Bitcoin volatility remains below historical levels, suggesting further selling is likely.
• Bitcoin price is highly dependent on monetary conditions, which indicate that easing will end by 1Q 2027. Gold is supported by continuing higher inflation expectations and, hence, the price divergence.

• Our key themes for Japanese banks in 2026 are top line growth due to a hawkish BoJ and the potential for shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals
• In the big caps, we stick with Resona Holdings as our top pick for its strong gearing to rising interest rates and its relatively high equity cross-holdings to market value
• Our top mid-caps picks are Iyogin Holdings and Hokuhoku, both of which are well positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and also have healthy cross-holdings relative to market value

• Unisound AI Technology, a Beijing-based AI solution provider focusing on the sales of conversational AI products and solutions, completed an initial public offering at HK$205/share in June.
• The company raised HK$251M in its Hong Kong IPO, including additional net proceeds from the over-allotment shares issued upon the full exercise of the over-allotment option.
• The stock peaked at HK$879.00 in September and fell ~41% over the next two months. The company’s early IPO lockup will expire on December 29, 2025.

• The recent quarter’s performance by NVIDIA Corporation reflects strong financial outcomes and strategic initiatives in the AI and computing domains.
• Garnering revenue of $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, NVIDIA continues to benefit from burgeoning demand in the accelerated computing and AI sectors, setting a new record with a $10 billion sequential revenue growth.
• Such figures underscore the company’s position within the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure landscape.

• Aequs has a strong integrated aerospace ecosystem and deep OEM ties, but consolidated margins remain weak due to low overseas utilisation and losses in the consumer vertical.
• A robust ₹4,200–4,500 Cr aerospace backlog and India cluster scale provide visibility, but working-capital stretch and customer concentration elevate execution risk.
• View: Operating-Leverage story; valuation upside (₹180–200) requires utilisation lift and margin recovery. OFS-heavy structure and promoter dilution temper near-term sentiment.

• In evaluating FirstEnergy Corp.’s third-quarter 2025 results, several key aspects inform an investment thesis.
• On the positive side, the company reported increases in both GAAP and core earnings per share, underscoring strong operational performance.
• Specifically, FirstEnergy’s core earnings saw a rise to $0.83 per share from $0.76 the previous year, while year-to-date core earnings jumped 15% to $2.02 per share, driven by effective execution of customer-focused investments and base rate adjustments in Pennsylvania.

• Shopify’s third-quarter results for 2025 highlight several strategic themes that underlie its current performance and future prospects, balanced by some challenges and considerations that investors should weigh.
• On the positive side, Shopify reported a significant 32% growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) and revenue, with a notable 38% increase in Merchant Solutions revenue.
• This was largely driven by the rising adoption of Shopify Payments, which has reached a penetration rate of 65%.

• Hanyang Eng is a key enabler of the high-tech industry, specializing in the construction of facilities for semiconductor and display manufacturers, which positions it to benefit from the ongoing global investment in chip production.
• The company demonstrates strong financial health, characterized by consistent revenue growth, robust profitability, and a strong dividend profile, making it an attractive value and income investment.
• While heavily exposed to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, Hanyang Eng is diversifying its business into bio-pharmaceuticals, aerospace, and green energy, potentially mitigating long-term risks and opening new growth avenues.

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• During the third quarter of 2025, Moderna Inc. reported $1 billion in revenue, primarily driven by sales of their approved vaccines: Spikevax, mNEXSPIKE, and mRESVIA.
• However, the company reported a net loss of $200 million, contrasting with a profit of $13 million in the same period the previous year.
• The decline in revenue, by 45% year-over-year, was mainly due to reduced demand for COVID vaccines.

• Datadog is a market-leading observability platform for cloud-scale applications, providing a unified, real-time view of a company’s entire technology stack. Its strong growth is driven by secular tailwinds of cloud migration and digital transformation.
• The company exhibits a powerful financial profile, characterized by high revenue growth, a recurring subscription-based model, and improving profitability and free cash flow. The ‘land-and-expand’ strategy has proven highly effective, with a strong net revenue retention rate.
• While the company’s strategic position and growth are compelling, its shares trade at a significant premium valuation. Key risks include intense competition from both specialized vendors and large cloud providers, and the stock’s sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts impacting IT spending.

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