In today’s briefing:
- Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation
- Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive
- Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)
- Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Bank Pair
- SITC International (1308 HK): A Charming 1H25
- CBA (CBA AU) Vs. Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU): Quant Signal Flags Trading Opportunity
- Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Revenue Rise in 2Q25; Margins Expand; Stable Outlook To Bring in Returns
- JX Advanced Metals – Q1 FY2025: Strong Beat, Guidance Raised, Valuations Supportive
- Asian Terminals (ATI PM) Q2 2025: Solid Revenue/Profit Growth 22.1%/48.9% YoY
- Buybacks, Dividends Define Telstra’s Future
Ibiden Q1 FY25: Strong Beat, Upgraded Outlook, Attractive Valuation
- Results: Q1 FY25 sales grew +10.5% YoY with OP surging +56%, led by AI/data-center substrate demand and margin gains.
- Earnings Upgrade & Outlook: FY25–27 EPS/EBITDA raised 9–12% on stronger substrates and resilient ceramics, implying ~18–19% CAGR ahead.
- Valuations: Trading at 21× FY25E P/E and 5.9× EV/EBITDA, Ibiden offers structural growth at compressed multiples versus AI peers.
Kangji Medical (9997 HK) Privatization – The Cancellation Price Is Not Attractive
- Valuation based on Cancellation Price hasn’t fully reflected the potential of Weijing Medical Robot business, nor does it reflect the future growth driven by import substitution due to centralized procurement.
- The medical device sector is expected to have a strong trend of performance reversal/valuation repair. Kangji’s fundamentals/prospects are moving in a positive direction. Reasonable valuation is HK$12-15 billion at least.
- The current Cancellation Price of HK$9.25 is too low to normally reflect the Company’s true fundamentals and prospects. Therefore, we’re worried that there would be some investors opposing this privatization.
Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (18 Aug)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlight: Currently seven pair trade opportunities across two markets and two sectors persist.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. ANZ (ANZ AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Aussie Bank Pair
- Context: The Macquarie (MQG AU) vs. ANZ (ANZ AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: Going long Macquarie (MQG AU) and short ANZ (ANZ AU) targets a 5% return to the statistical mean reversion level.
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
SITC International (1308 HK): A Charming 1H25
- The 1H25 net profit of US$630m (+79.7% YoY) for SITC International (1308 HK) is impressive. It maintains a generous 70% payout ratio, yielding 4.8% for the interim.
- Its outlook for 2H25 stays positive despite the recent pull-back in spot rates. Overall demand-supply dynamics continue to be favourable in the short and medium term.
- With interim earnings already accounting for 58% of full-year consensus, there is room for an upgrade. At 3.3x P/B, it is not expensive given 30-40% ROEs.
CBA (CBA AU) Vs. Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU): Quant Signal Flags Trading Opportunity
- Context: The Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) vs. Bank of Queensland (BOQ AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
- Highlights: After Commonwealth Bank’s sharp post-earnings drop last week, a mean-reversion model suggests long Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) and short Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU).
- Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.
Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Revenue Rise in 2Q25; Margins Expand; Stable Outlook To Bring in Returns
- Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB) posted 4% rise in revenue from hospital operations in 2Q25 as international and Thai patients revenue reported growth of 6% and 3% YoY, respectively.
- EBITDA grew 7% YoY to THB 6.1B on higher revenue and better cost management, while net profit rose 5% YoY to THB 3.5B on lower interest cost. Margins expanded.
- BDMS has delivered an overall stable financial performance with inpatient revenue growth and stable EBITDA margin. Near term upside potential remains.
JX Advanced Metals – Q1 FY2025: Strong Beat, Guidance Raised, Valuations Supportive
- Results: Q1 FY25 revenue rose 12% YoY to ¥191.3bn with operating profit up 22% and net profit up 33%, driven by robust semiconductor and ICT materials growth.
- Guidance & Revisions: FY25 guidance lifted to ¥760bn revenue/¥110bn OP; dividend ¥18. Our forecasts rise to PAT ¥70bn (+35%) in FY25, with 30–40% upgrades through FY26–28.
- Valuations: At ~13x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, JX trades above domestic miners but below semiconductor materials peers, leaving room for rerating if the advanced materials mix deepens.
Asian Terminals (ATI PM) Q2 2025: Solid Revenue/Profit Growth 22.1%/48.9% YoY
- Asian Terminals (ATI PM) reported a strong increase in revenues/profits of 22.1%/48.9% YoY for Q2 2025, led by the base effect of a 10% YoY price increase in Manila South Harbor.
- Q3 2025 should be another decent quarter, given the effect of a price hike for the Batangas Container Terminal (Passenger terminal fees are on hold at the Batangas).
- The stock trades at 9.3x FY25e, with a 7% dividend yield (65% payout ratio) and is net cash with an ROCE>20%.
Buybacks, Dividends Define Telstra’s Future
- Telstra is guiding to subdued mobile growth in FY26 as the cost of living bites.
- Earnings growth relies on cost cutting and satellite development.
- -Telstra’s FY25 in line, FY26 prognosis subdued -Cost of living driving customers to cheaper options -Major staff reductions to drive cost-outs -Satellite service critical to maintaining dominance
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