In today’s briefing:
- LG Corp: NAV Analysis Suggests a 29% Upside, Likely to Catch Up to LG Chem
- Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive
- Mitsui Chemical (4183): Releasing the Crackers!
- Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?
- JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Deep Value with Hidden JSW Optionality
- Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac
- Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade
- Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Penfolds Owner at 11x P/E and 7% Dividend Yield
- Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord
- Primer: Elementos Ltd (ELT AU) – Nov 2025

LG Corp: NAV Analysis Suggests a 29% Upside, Likely to Catch Up to LG Chem
- Our updated NAV valuation of LG Corp suggests implied market cap of 17.2 trillion won or target price of 111,605 won per share, representing 29.3% higher than current levels.
- LG Corp’s investment stakes in LG Chem and LG Electronics are worth 15.7 trillion won representing 119% of LG Corp’s entire market cap.
- Lower taxes on dividends could accelerate the capital allocation to companies with higher dividend yields/payouts such as LG Corp.
Shiseido (4911) | Progress on Reforms, but Growth Still Elusive
- Shiseido’s Q3 revenue rose 4.6% YoY to ¥224bn, marking its first growth in three quarters, though full-year sales guidance was cut 3%.
- Profitability remained pressured by tariffs and Drunk Elephant weakness; product margins fell 340bps YoY, but SG&A improvements limited overall margin decline to 80bps.
- Management maintained core OP profit guidance and continued executing structural reforms, achieving ¥21bn cost savings YTD, with deeper efficiency cuts planned through 2026.
Mitsui Chemical (4183): Releasing the Crackers!
- Mitsui Chemicals is slashing exposure to commodity chemicals and ramping up high-margin specialty films and resins—setting the stage for its RoE to soar from 5% to over 13%.
- Restructuring is unlocking massive cost savings while driving growth from cutting-edge segments that are poised for double-digit growth and global dominance.
- The stock trades at a deep discount, but could easily command a premium with solid execution, driving the share price to more than double or even treble within 3 years.
Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Asking TSMC for More Capacity; Apple to Disintermediate Telcos?
- Nvidia Pushes TSMC for More Capacity as AI Chip Demand Surges
- Apple Expands Its Satellite Ambitions for iPhones Beyond Just Emergencies — A Step Towards Disintermediating Telcos?
- Nvidia’s International HQ in Taipei Deal Clears Final Hurdle — Boost for Taiwan 2026E-2027E
JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Deep Value with Hidden JSW Optionality
- Trough valuations: JFE trades at only US$525/t EV/t and 0.5× P/B, despite stable guidance and improving high-value steel mix.
- Hidden value: 15% JSW Steel stake (~¥500 bn) equals ~45% of JFE’s market cap—cheap India exposure with re-rating potential.
- Upside case: SOTP implies +50–60% equity upside, supported by 4–5% dividend yield and H2 margin recovery.
Four New Statistical Arbitrage Opportunities in Asia-Pac
- Four stock pairs have triggered new mean-reversion trade signals, with price ratios deviating more than two standard deviations from their one-year averages.
- Two of the opportunities involve companies in the same industry and two pairs involve companies in different industries within the same sector.
- Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, outlining opportunities and key risk considerations.
Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade
- Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade
- Risk is elevated as bearish divergences and rolling tops abound
- No top yet signalled in the major US indices – so what to do in this environment
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Penfolds Owner at 11x P/E and 7% Dividend Yield
Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU — US$3.0 billion) is one of the world’s largest wine producers globally. And it’s one of the very few large companies in Australia trading at a reasonable valuation multiple.
It started as the wine division of brewery giant Forster’s Group. From the 1990s onwards, Foster’s acquired vineyards and brands such as Penfolds, Lindeman’s and Beringer.
But throughout the 2000s, this wine division underperformed, draining cash from Foster’s highly profitable beer business. So in 2011, it was eventually spun off into a separately listed entity called Treasury Wine Estates (TWE).
Bangkok Bank (SET:BBL) Downgraded on Thailand-Cambodia Suspension of Peace Accord
- We turn cautious on our sole positive Thai recommendation Bangkok Bank, downgrading it to neutral from buy, despite its very attractive value attributes
- We believe that Thailand’s unilateral suspension of the peace accord in the Thailand-Cambodia conflict is likely to be negative for sentiment towards Thai equities, including banks, in the short term
- Consequently, in the worsening investor climate, we do not expect Bangkok Bank shares to benefit from a re-rating over the short term
Primer: Elementos Ltd (ELT AU) – Nov 2025
- Elementos is strategically positioned to capitalize on a forecast tin supply deficit, with two world-class projects in stable jurisdictions: the development-ready Oropesa project in Spain and the exploration-focused Cleveland project in Australia.
- The recently completed Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Oropesa project demonstrates robust economics, underpinning a clear development pathway. The company is also pursuing a mine-to-metal strategy in Europe to capture additional value.
- Exploration at the Cleveland project continues to uncover significant mineralization of not only tin and copper but also critical minerals like tungsten and fluorite, offering substantial long-term upside potential.
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