Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: MINISO Group (9896 HK): Assessing the TOP TOY Spin-Off and more

• We preliminarily estimate TOP TOY may be valued at 19.1-40.3% of MINISO Group Holding (9896 HK)‘s market capitalisation, though there are still a lot of moving parts.  
• TOP TOY is doing well in FY24 with a 41.1% surge in GMV, and for 1Q25, its revenue grew by 58.9%, reflecting exciting growth prospects.
• Bloks Group (325 HK) is a better comparable as its revenue is 2.3x TOP TOY’s, but its profit is 8x. A successful TOP TOY spin-off should benefit Miniso.

• Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. 
• AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. 
• 4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.

• In this insight, we provide updated NAV valuations of Hanmi Science (008930 KS), Amorepacific Holdings (002790 KS), Youngone Holdings (009970 KS), OCI Holdings (010060 KS), and Orion Holdings (001800 KS).
• These five smaller holding companies have also outperformed the market this year (up 43% on average versus KOSPI which is up 20% in the same period).
• These holdcos’ outperformance has been driven by investors’ perception that the new Lee Jae-Myung administration will make real changes to improve corporate governance policies. 

• Almonty Industries has reported first quarter 2025 financial results in line with expectations and reaffirmed its position as one of the most strategically important critical mineral suppliers in the Western Hemisphere.
• The company continues to deliver on its operational roadmap, capital deployment, and geopolitical positioning at a time when global interest in reliable non-Chinese tungsten supply is intensifying.
• Following a significant rally in tungsten prices since February and the continued de-risking of its Sangdong Mine in South Korea, we have updated our forecasts and valuation model.

• In this insight, we discuss the preferred shares of five major holding companies and how the share price gap relative to their common counterparts could decrease. 
• There is a relatively easy way to improve shareholder value of these holding companies which is to cancel the entire preferred shares that trade at discount to their common counterparts.
• The common shares of these five companies have experienced an average share price appreciation of 33.2% YTD versus 28.7% appreciation for their preferred shares counterparts.

• TSMC is on its way to beat its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 72% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 43% YoY, Consensus at 26% (NT$). Upgrade coming? 
• UMC is on its way to miss its 2Q revenue guidance, Apr + May represent 63% of 2Q guide. YTD revenue growth 4% YoY . No recovery in legacy semiconductor. 
• This confirms, again, that AI is the only growing segment in semiconductors. The rest is lackluster (computers, smartphone, automotive, industrial, you name it).

• Pinduoduo’s surprise Q125 OP & NP declines happened before US tariff, de minimis changes
• Recent data from Bain & Co. suggests extremely difficult US conditions for Temu, SHEIN
• If representative, the April-May US data suggest deep, lasting US challenges for the platforms

• Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the UK’s third largest homebuilder, managing 14,154 completions in 2022.
• Their share price has declined 44% over the last 2 years in response to rising mortgage rates.
• While we acknowledge the short to medium term impact of rising rates, we see Taylor Wimpey’s long-term profitability as strong, and worth twice their current valuation.

GB Group’s CEO Dev Dhiman’s first full year has seen initiatives addressing the company’s foundations rather than its short-term growth. This is a necessary step if management are to optimise longer-term shareholder value. Accordingly, any share price disappointment regarding H225 and H126 growth rates needs to be set against the group’s increasing optionality around capital allocation and the reassurance of an unchanged FY26 financial outlook.

• FET’s Beat-the-Market strategy is geared to position the company to gain share with customers during cyclical troughs that can support accelerated growth as the cycle turns higher.
• The strategy is underpinned by the company’s focus on developing specialized technological solutions that allow its customers to develop their assets cost-efficiently and safely.
• Increased drilling and completion intensity as operators push the limits of lateral lengths and stimulation intensity drives demand for the consumable products that account for ~80% of FET’s revenue.