In today’s briefing:
- Minth (425): Even Cheaper This Year
- NIDEC Corp. (6594 JP): JP¥1tn Shock Has Not Finished the Job: Price Discovery Is Still Ahead
- BYD (1211): Mid-Term Value Opportunity
- Shortlist of High-Conviction Ideas Across Japan, China & India – September 2026
- Singapura Finance Ltd Company Update (11 September 2026)
- Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms
- Money Forward (3994 JP) | Take Profit Ahead of 3Q. The Price Has Caught Up.
- Shein (625 HK): 1H26 Results Review = Not Great!
- India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)
- Samsung SDI (006400): Re-Rate Soon
Minth (425): Even Cheaper This Year
- Along with other Hong Kong stocks, Minth Group (425 HK) share price took a beating this year that is caused by market sentiment rather than fundamentals.
- They launched a robot-making factory in Serbia, a JV in Indonesia, that in the near term drained FCF but revenues and earnings are still growing.
- With PER 8x, EV/EBITDA 6x, and PBR<1, Minth has become a value stock that calls for re-rating.
NIDEC Corp. (6594 JP): JP¥1tn Shock Has Not Finished the Job: Price Discovery Is Still Ahead
- The ¥1tn impairment remains unconfirmed, but the market has already lost ¥500bn — pricing roughly half the reported accounting damage.
- EV motors delivered <40% of target revenue, China share has effectively disappeared, and the CEO exit leaves a governance vacuum.
- AVOID / REDUCE: ¥2,000 target; wait for audit resolution as ¥2,405 still offers little margin of safety and downside remains asymmetric.
BYD (1211): Mid-Term Value Opportunity
- Overseas revenue is 60-100% more profitable, and interestingly, it has reached more than 50% of BYD’s total revenue for the first time.
- The recent recall is not significant enough to dent the group’s overall business. BYD Company (1211 HK) has one of the highest overseas sales contributions compared to the peers.
- The lower valuation, combined with a stronger operation including higher overall margin thanks to the growing overseas business, presents an opportunity to own BYD.
Shortlist of High-Conviction Ideas Across Japan, China & India – September 2026
- We compile our selection of companies across Japan, China & India based on bottom-up triggers in each company.
- This is a mid-quarter update on companies as most companies will be announcing their September quarter results in next 45 days.
- Based on these new results and guidance, we will update the list of top ideas accordingly.
Singapura Finance Ltd Company Update (11 September 2026)
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Singapura Finance (“SF”) is a Singapore-based financial services firm that offers loans for both consumers and corporates.
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Other services include savings and fixed deposits.
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The firm has seven branches located in populous areas to serve its client base that’s spread throughout Singapore.
Geo Energy: Direct Hormuz Play, Limited by Domestic Reforms
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Structural cost reset, not a coal-price bet.
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The MBJ integrated haul road + barging chain (capex ~US$150 mil) removes third-party trucking on TRA coal and takes ~US$7–8/t out of the annual cost base.
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That is a self-help margin gain that survives a flat coal price.
Money Forward (3994 JP) | Take Profit Ahead of 3Q. The Price Has Caught Up.
- Take profit ahead of 3Q: at ¥6,020, Money Forward has effectively reached our ¥6,030 DCF value.
- Strong results largely anticipated: HIRAC boosts headline EBITDA, while a guidance raise is increasingly priced into ~5x FY26E sales.
- Risk/Reward has shifted: limited valuation cushion makes protecting gains ahead of a potentially noisy 3Q print prudent.
Shein (625 HK): 1H26 Results Review = Not Great!
- 1H26 results show a reported-vs-adjusted profit gap: headline net income +112% YoY vs. adjusted net income -55.6%, as fulfilment costs rise 6.3pp of revenue.
- Our 2 Sept ACCUMULATE call got the risk framework right — recap math, cost escalation, governance concentration — but wrong on price: float thesis, not fundamentals, was the miss.
- We maintain BULLISH but with a lower Fair Value of US$25bn/HK$45.4/share, based on FY26E Adj. EBIT US$950m x 11x EV/EBIT plus ~US$14.2bn net cash.
India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (29 Sep 2026)
- Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
- Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.
- Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.
Samsung SDI (006400): Re-Rate Soon
- Samsung SDI (006400 KS) returned to profitability earlier than expected, thanks to the pivot to AI data center back up system and key EV partnerships.
- Contrary to popular belief, the AMPC (credit for being green in the US), is still active and contributed to SDI’s bottom meaningfully.
- As the valuation is relatively depressed right now, we should expect some sort of the Value Up program to kick in and the share price should re-rate.
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