Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Samsung Electronics: Share Buyback of 3.9 Trillion Won and more

• Samsung Electronics announced today that it plans to conduct a large scale buyback worth 3.9 trillion won, of which 2.8 trillion won will be cancelled. 
• Samsung Electronics reported  consolidated sales of 74 trillion won and operating profit of 4.6 trillion won in 2Q 2025, down 0.1% and 55.9% YoY, respectively. 
• The average daily trading volume (ADTV) of Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) (common shares) is 15.43 million. Therefore, the share buyback of 56.89 million (common shares) represents 3.7x of ADTV. 

• Looking ahead to the third quarter, we estimate that TSMC’s revenue in U.S. dollars could grow by approximately 5–10% quarter-over-quarter.
• Buoyed by the AI boom and the recent increase in U.S. semiconductor investment tax credits to 35%, TSMC will achieve its full-year target of 25% growth in U.S. dollar revenue.
• In the second half of the year, as multiple brands launch flagship smartphone chips, TSMC’s N3P process is fully prepared for volume production.

• India’s PVC market faces high import dependency, reaching 63% in FY25, due to stagnant domestic capacity and a widening 3 MMT demand-supply gap. 
• Adani and Reliance plan 2.5 MTPA domestic capacity expansion, bolstering production to reduce import reliance. 
• This aims to cut import dependency from 63% to under 30% by FY27, narrowing the gap to 1.4 MMT, enhancing domestic profitability.

• Power GaN coming oversupply, an illustration. The fear is a repeat of the SiC situation (large capacity built in China, Wolfspeed filling for bankruptcy protection) 
• Samsung delays A14 to focus on 3-2nm. Samsung and Intel have the same problem: yields are too low to attract customers.  
• Chinese GPU are coming – or IPO are coming? Moore Threads and MetaX approved to list in Shanghai. Tiny revenues, lots of R&D. Biren Technology expected to file in HK.

• Kokusai has delivered steady growth, with revenue rising from ¥181.8B in FY2021 to ¥238.9B in FY2025 and a strong rebound in profitability.
• It plans to expand capacity, grow service revenue beyond 35%, and launch next-gen tools for GAA logic and 3D memory.
• At ~22x P/E and 12.5x EV/EBITDA, valuations appear fair given its scale, but upside exists if GAA traction and service leverage play out.

• CSC saw peak profitability in 2021, but margins and earnings have since contracted sharply, with EBITDA/ton down to just US$15 in Q1 2025.
• It now targets US$3.1–4.7B capex over 5 years toward green steel, premium products, and ASEAN expansion, though execution risks remain high.
• Despite modest growth and high leverage, CSC trades at 15x EV/EBITDA and over US$1,500 EV/ton—well above regional peers.

• Sales of ikeGPS Group’s suite of products are benefitting from structural trends.
• New research explains these tools remain critical for a range of large customers, with the current focus on North America

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an integrated energy play with strong differentiating factors (trading, high-quality assets) but with a less aggressive tilt towards renewables, a strategic review of lubricants (Castrol) and a primary focus on maximising shareholder returns. In our view, this pivot could reduce its discount to peers. We believe oil and gas exposure is important in the construction of investors’ portfolios as it offsets the negative impact of energy price spikes.

• Revenue increased by 14.6% YoY to JPY66.1bn, with operating profit rising 18.1% YoY to JPY17.6bn.
• The company revised its full-year forecast, lowering revenue by 3.9% but raising operating profit by 4.7%.
• Assets under management reached JPY2.67tn, exceeding fiscal year-end targets, driven by new asset management contracts.

• 2Q25 production was 21.4 mbbl/d, which is very close to our forecast (~22 mbbl/d).
• The company reported a net cash position of US$241.9 mm at end-June, significantly above our expected US$210 mm.
• This reflects both the timing of capital expenditures across 2025 and continued strong operating performance.