Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: SoftBank Soared. And This Hidden AI Power Play Could Be Next and more

• AI’s evolving every second of every day, and so are the boom’s best investing plays. Early this year, I called out SoftBank Group as a prime AI opportunity.
• A wide discount to NAV offered a cheap way to invest in Arm and tech, but that’s narrowed after Softbank’s 150% share price rally – and more limited NAV growth.
• So I’ve taken a fresh look at SoftBank, reviewed my original trade ideas, and found a new undervalued power play that could help you reap a tidy reward.

• Recently, I had the chance to discuss Hamee Corporation (TSE: 3134) with Evan Bleker of Event Driven Insights.

• Hamee Corporation will soon spin-off its high margin software business.
• The company is 2 weeks away from breaking up into two separate companies which both look attractive.

• MediaTek Joins Forces with NVIDIA on the GB10 Superchip — Locally-Run AI Models Are Coming to Your Desktop
• TSMC’s 2nm Price Hike Spurs Interest in Samsung, But Underscores Its Strength
• Latest for Smartphone Demand 3Q25: A Little Bit Better, Just a Little 

• The demand & inventory correction lasted for 9 quarters (4Q22-4Q24) but we’re already past peak recovery in 4Q25. 2-3Q25 revenue growth was ~15% YoY, declining to 10% in 4Q. 
• 4Q guidance: revenues ok, weak EPS 1) higher tax rate 2) lower production loading. While management says that inventories are at a good level, TXN is cutting down production levels.
• Consensus is ~10% too high for 2026 & 27, Valuations not attractive, above average.

• Pop Mart is a dominant force in the rapidly growing global art toy market, driven by a powerful IP-led business model that fosters a loyal collector base and high-margin revenue streams.
• Aggressive global expansion is the primary growth vector, with overseas revenue surging and plans to significantly increase its international store footprint, aiming for overseas markets to represent 50% of total sales.
• Exceptional financial performance, characterized by triple-digit revenue and net income growth, robust margins, and strong operating cash flow, underpins a premium valuation relative to peers.

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• We made a major mistake in our last newsletter, on CCCS. The big story in insider sales is the exit of private equity owner Advent International, not share sales by directors.
• Those sales exist, but in much smaller number than we reported.
• We remain concerned about the exit of directors, and we stand by our thesis that the stock is over-valued.

• Fluor Corporation shares have surged following reports that activist investor Starboard Value has taken a nearly 5% stake in the engineering and construction giant.
• The rally comes amid growing expectations that Starboard, led by Jeff Smith, will push Fluor to unlock value by exploring strategic alternatives for its 40% stake in NuScale Power, a small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) company that has seen its own stock skyrocket amid AI-driven power demand.
• With Fluor’s core business lagging and NuScale’s valuation surging, Starboard’s campaign centers on the market’s apparent mispricing of Fluor’s sum-of-the-parts.

• The market consensus is too conservative for Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co. (1138 HK). A better-than-expected 3Q25 result is likely to prompt an earnings upgrade.   
• Spot VLCC rate is 32.7% higher than 1H25 so far for 2H25, and average bunker price has declined 6.2% in 3Q25, both implying improved earnings prospects.
• With an average ROE for FY25-27 at over 12%, its 1.05x P/B is not stretched. During FY20-23, the average ROE of 1.6% has supported a P/B ratio of 0.56x. 

• Context: The Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) vs. Commonwealth Bank (CBA AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Long Bank Of Queensland (BOQ AU) vs. short CBA (CBA AU) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Cleveland-Cliffs saw its stock jump 21.5% in a single trading session following a Q3 2025 earnings report that significantly beat EBITDA expectations and unveiled a surprise strategic pivot toward rare earth minerals production.
• This dramatic move has reenergized investor enthusiasm, particularly as it aligns with broader U.S. policy goals of reducing critical mineral dependence on China.
• For the third quarter, the company reported adjusted EBITDA of $143 million versus Street estimates of $128 million, with revenue coming in at $4.7 billion.