In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
- Weekly Update (WDC, AAF, LBTYA, LEN)
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 31 Oct 2025): Beautiful Skew Behaving Badly But RMB Counters Approach
- Big Beautiful Skew was again a no-show. But the SFC’s expectation of dual counter eligibility for Connect by year-end approaches its endgame.
- The GAC (2238 HK) reco 2wks ago worked well. One extra week was bad. Last week’s reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) was a disaster. H underperformed A by 8.4%.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
Weekly Update (WDC, AAF, LBTYA, LEN)
- This week we had a busy week of earnings (WDC, AAF, LBTYA), and it will continue next week.
- Honeywell (HON) spun off 100% of its Advanced Materials business, Solstice (SOLS), on October 30, 2025.
Solstice was added to the S&P 500 and performed well on its first day of trading before selling off on Friday.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: October 2025 Report
- GBL: discount 28.6% (Oct 31). Selling €1.7bn GBL Capital NAV for €1.5bn cash (+€0.4bn deferred); €0.6bn commitments transferred. Simpler, more liquid, greater buyback firepower—supports discount narrowing.
- Sweden: Industrivärden discount 5.8% (near lows). Investor AB resilient; NAV SEK 1,024bn, TSR +5%. Quality ballast, limited discount alpha now.
- Vivendi: 33.2% discount to €4.67 NAV; AMF-driven OPA path intact. Scenario-weighted value ~€4.17; prefer outright long or stub vs UMG/Banijay/MFE; trim if discount narrows to 10–15%.
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