In today’s briefing:
- Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization
- Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Mergers, SPACs, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025
- Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
- ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains
- SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions
- Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb
Chagee IPO Lockup: US$2.8bn Lockup Release; XVC Likely to Begin Monetization
- Chagee Holdings (CHA US) raised US$411m from its US IPO in April 2025. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
- Chagee is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Mergers, SPACs, Asset Sales, and Litigation Opportunities in 2025
- LakeShore Biopharma’s delisting from Nasdaq to OTC caused forced selling, impacting merger arbitrage spread, with 18% upside potential.
- Mayne Pharma’s acquisition by Cosette Pharmaceuticals faces legal challenges over a material adverse change, with a 40-50% spread.
- Currency Exchange International’s closure of Canadian business and potential US uplisting could enhance profitability and shareholder returns.
Chey Divorce Verdict Tomorrow at 10 AM: SK Inc Poised for Larger-Than-Expected Intraday Moves
- Supreme Court divorce ruling for Chairman Chey (17.9% owner) hits tomorrow 10 a.m., likely driving intraday swings.
- Chey’s wealth is mainly SK Inc (17.8%) and SK Siltron (29.6%). With half SK Inc shares tied, only SK Siltron offers liquidity, but it still falls short of his needs.
- If the Supreme Court surprises, Chey may act on SK Inc shares, fueling a management/control narrative. Payments are due immediately, so SK Inc could see bigger intraday swings than expected.
ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) Earnings Preview: Strong Track Record Points to Post-Result Gains
- ICICI Bank (ICICIBC IN / IBN US) is scheduled to report its Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
- Highlight: In recent years, the bank has consistently beat analysts’ expectations and often posted a positive performance post-earnings.
- Portfolio Impact: As a Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex heavyweight, earnings-day moves ripple across the benchmark, making results market-relevant beyond the single stock.
SSI Newsletter Highlights: Investment Ideas, Merger Arbitrage Opportunities, and Key Transactions
- Lennar Corporation plans to divest its remaining 20% stake in Millrose Properties to shareholders with a 6.38% premium.
- Falcon Oil & Gas agreed to sell assets to TBN, distributing TBN shares to shareholders at a 0.00687x ratio.
- Dickson Concepts trades at a 40% discount to net cash, with potential privatization efforts by founder Dickson Poon.
Allwyn–OPAP: Building a Lottery Powerhouse, Creating a Complex Arb
- Defined downside: OPAP trades ~2% below its €19.04 exit anchor, with a 5% cap limiting redemption but offering a clear floor for risk-arbitrage positioning.
- Catalyst carry: €0.50 dividend in November plus €0.80 post-close yield 6–7% carry into H1 2026 completion, reinforcing positive IRR on a short-duration special situation.
- Governance overlay: KKCG’s 85% voting control speeds execution and capital access but embeds a governance discount; key to watch: listing venue, board independence, and dividend discipline.
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