In today’s briefing:
- Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
- Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO
- Tsuruha-Welcia: Will Scale Translate into Profit?
- Spindex Industries (SPE SP): Scheme Vote on 18 December
- Exploring 17 Actionable Investment Opportunities: MLP Buyouts, Merger Arbitrage and More
Dongfeng (489 HK): Revisiting VOYAH’s Spin-Off Valuation
- Back on the 22nd August 2025, SOE-backed Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm, VOYAH. The two proposals are interconditional.
- In its October application proof, VOYAH turned a profit in 7M25. The market was implying a price-to-trailing-sales of 1.5x for VOYAH, versus the basket average of 2.1x. It’s now ~1.2x.
- Key PRC reg approvals (Mofcom/NDRC/SAFE) remain outstanding. Meanwhile, a basket of peers are down 21% since the dual proposals were announced. And their average price-to-trailing-sales are down to 1.7x.
ANE (9956 HK): Tempting Fate Through an Unchanged Share Alternative Cap?
- The consortium has decided NOT to exercise its right to increase the ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK) share alternative cap from 5.00% to 7.50% of outstanding shares.
- The positive read-across is that it signals the consortium’s confidence that the vote will pass, as reflected in the quick decision not to lift the cap (deadline was 12 December).
- The negative readacross is that shareholders requesting the scrip option likely exceeded the 7.5% upper threshold, and the consortium is hoping that these shareholders will instead take the mix option.
Spindex Inds (SPE SP): 18th Dec Vote On MBO
- On the 26th September, precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex’s controlling shareholder, with 74.95%.
- The Tan’s offered S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed; but a decade-high price. A A$0.02/share was also bolted on (& now paid). No competing Offer will emerge.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 18th December, and expected payment on the 11th Feb 2026. The IFA (Evolve Capital) says “fair & reasonable“.
Tsuruha-Welcia: Will Scale Translate into Profit?
- The Tsuruha and Welcia merger before the year’s close, backed by Aeon, is targeting ¥50 billion in cost savings over three years.
- As well as the massive economies of scale, consolidated procurement, revamped private brands and a unified points and customer‑ID strategy are central to this.
- However, weak food offerings, legacy stores and IT complexity still threaten sustainable profit recovery as is the question of who will be in charge.
Spindex Industries (SPE SP): Scheme Vote on 18 December
- The Spindex Industries (SPE SP) IFA has opined that the Chairman and PrimeMovers Equity’s scheme offer of S$1.43 is fair and reasonable.
- The offer is at the upper end of the IFA valuation range of S$0.71 and S$1.44. The offer is at adjusted NAV and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges.
- The absence of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership reduces voting risk. This is a done deal.
Exploring 17 Actionable Investment Opportunities: MLP Buyouts, Merger Arbitrage and More
- KNOT Offshore Partners received a non-binding privatization proposal at $10/unit, with historical MLP buyouts often resulting in higher offers.
- Golden Entertainment’s Chairman bids to acquire the company at 1x EBITDA, with activists pushing for better terms.
- Yext’s Chairman and CEO proposed a non-binding privatization offer at $9/share, inviting competing bids for potential price increases.
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