In today’s briefing:
- Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
- Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law
- Near-Term Flows to Watch on Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation in Korea
- Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Potential Endgames as Murakami Builds a Stake
- Double Tender Offer Volume of JTC by Affirma Capital (10.4 Million Additional Shares)
- Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View
- Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer
- SoftBank Sold 2.3 Trillion Won Worth of Coupang In 2025
- Empresaria Group Faces 48% Upside Potential Amid Strategic Review and Merger Arbitrage with Legacy UK Holdings
- DallasNews Faces Competing Bids Amidst Shareholder and Corporate Governance Tensions
Dongfeng (489 HK)’s Privatisation And EV Backdoor Listing
- Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) has announced a privatisation; together with a concurrent listing of its EV arm.
- The same day as the dual proposals, Dongfeng announced an interim loss (1H25). Evidently, the way forward – from an investor standpoint – is electric, not internal combustion engines.
- The cash terms + scrip (into the EV listing) under the proposals are attractive. Even after this morning’s move (+53.6%) in Dongfeng’s share price.
Surprise National Assembly Moves: 2nd Commercial Act Amendments & Yellow Envelope Law
- Major governance shake-up: >KRW 2T companies face mandatory cumulative voting, giving minorities real board influence, while audit committee split votes expand from 1 to 2+, boosting independence.
- Trade sweet spot is holdcos and brokers with high treasury stock and retail float. Bloated buybacks may drive cancellations, sparking quick momentum trades in messy-governance names.
- Today, holdcos and brokers with 10%+ treasury stock and >₩500bn market cap are leading pops, driving action and attracting fast-money flows.
Near-Term Flows to Watch on Mandatory Treasury Share Cancellation in Korea
- Dems likely to push 3rd package in Q4; near-term flows chasing treasury stock cancellation theme, with locals screening >₩1tn mkt cap, >10% treasury shares of float.
- Little pushback on mandatory treasury cancellations; debate focused on timeline — grace period vs. immediate rollout — highlighting how much leeway government may grant differing governance structures.
- Too early for governance plays; near-term momentum flows likely in names with highest treasury stock relative to float, where cancellation is expected to hit flows hardest.
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Potential Endgames as Murakami Builds a Stake
- Takateru Murakami, Yoshiaki Murakami’s son, reported a 10.88% ownership ratio in Ashimori Industry (3526 JP). The purchases were from 14 to 18 August, i.e., after the tender offer announcement.
- Takateru Murakami’s average buy-in price of JPY4,134.79 per share is broadly in line with the Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)‘s JPY4,140 tender offer.
- Murakami’s disclosure suggests three possibilities: 1) force Toyoda Gosei to bump, 2) reach an agreement to rollover its shares into the BidCo or 3) a combination of 1 and 2.
Double Tender Offer Volume of JTC by Affirma Capital (10.4 Million Additional Shares)
- On 25 August, Affirma Capital announced that it will be doubling the tender offer volume of JTC from 10.43 million shares previously to 20.87 million shares (40.4% of outstanding shares).
- Affirma Capital’s stake in JTC will increase from the existing 29.2% to 69.5% after this second tender offer.
- There were a total of 21.5 million international visitors to Japan from January to June 2025, up 21% YoY. This is a record breaking figure.
Alibaba (9988 HK): Expected Earnings-Day Swings and Options Market View
- Alibaba (9988 HK/ BABA US)will announce quarterly results on Friday, August 29, 7:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time. The timing is crucial for options expiries in HK and the US.
- Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.
- Why Read: Get the expected move and a view of the post-event volatility term structure.
Mediobanca’s Failed Banca Generali Bid and Implications for BMPS’ Hostile Offer
- Mediobanca trades as a cheap option on a BMPS bump: limited downside, positive skew, and convergence momentum after Generali defence failed. Positioning risk/reward is asymmetric into the September deadline.
- With BMPS paper implying little premium, spread tightness reflects embedded expectations of a bump. Investors effectively hold optionality: upside on improved terms, downside cushioned by franchise value and sector consolidation.
- Regulatory overhang looks contained: ECB signed off, Rome aligned. Focus shifts to September 8 acceptance deadline, where pressure builds on BMPS to sweeten terms and avoid a messy partial outcome.
SoftBank Sold 2.3 Trillion Won Worth of Coupang In 2025
- It was reported today that SoftBank sold 2.3 trillion won ($1.7 billion) worth of Coupang (CPNG US) shares this year.
- The total number of Coupang shares sold in three rounds this year by SoftBank is 60 million, worth $1.66 billion (2.3 trillion won).
- We believe that this partial stake sale of SoftBank by Coupang is likely to have a moderately negative impact on Coupang.
Empresaria Group Faces 48% Upside Potential Amid Strategic Review and Merger Arbitrage with Legacy UK Holdings
- Empresaria Group received a 62p/share takeover offer from Legacy UK Holdings, with management indicating willingness to recommend it.
- The main risk involves the current buyer potentially withdrawing, with limited information on Legacy UK Holdings’ track record.
- EMR’s financial performance has declined due to a business downcycle, but a turnaround plan is in place.
DallasNews Faces Competing Bids Amidst Shareholder and Corporate Governance Tensions
- DALN announced a merger with Hearst Communications at $15/share, a 275% premium to the pre-announcement price.
- Alden Global Capital, owning 10% of DALN, made a competing bid of $18.50/share, which was ignored.
- DALN’s financial struggles include declining print circulation and advertising revenues, despite cost-saving measures and asset sales.
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