In today’s briefing:
- Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside
- Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
- Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share
- Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG
- Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.
- Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals
- A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea
- Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)
Dongfeng Motor (489 HK): VOYAH Listing Docs Underscore the Upside
- On 22 August, Dongfeng Motor (489 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional privatisation by merger by absorption by Dongfeng Motor Corporation, along with a proposed distribution and listing of VOYAH shares.
- The VOYAH application proof, filed on 2 October, points to strong fundamentals and suggests that the appraised value of VOYAH and the offer are conservative.
- Based on the data points from the application proof, I calculate that the implied offer is HK$12.11-12.25 per H Share, a 11.6%-12.9% premium to the appraised value of HK$10.85.
Tata Motors (TTMT IN) Demerger: Interesting Index Implications
- Tata Motors (TTMT IN) is demerging the company into two separate listed entities that will focus on the Passenger Vehicle business and the Commercial Vehicle businesses.
- Based on the estimated valuation for the two entities, both stocks will continue to remain in the MGlobal Index and the FGlobal Index.
- NIFTY and SENSEX trackers will need to sell their Commercial Vehicle business holdings soon after listing. There could be selling in the Passenger Vehicle business holdings at a later rebalance.
Merger Arb Mondays (06 Oct) – Kangji, Soft99, I-Net, Daiseki, Mandom, Changhong, Smart Share
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
Weekly Deals Digest (05 Oct) – Mitsubishi Logisnext, Soft99, Daiseki Eco, I Net, Tekscend, LG
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Tekscend Photomask (429A JP), Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) and LG Electronics India (123D IN) IPOs.
- Event-Driven developments: Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Daiseki Eco. Solution (1712 JP), I Net Corp (9600 JP), Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP), Hangzhou Kangji Medical Instrument Co., Ltd. (9997 HK).
Qfin Holdings Inc.(QFIN): Regulatory Risk Modest; Valuation Remains Attractive for Potential Upside.
- New Chinese regulations mandate risk sharing with banks, likely raising Qfin’s platform CoR. Management is responding conservatively with tighter controls and higher provisioning before Oct 2025.
- Strong 2024, early 2025 profits were supported by low CoR. Based on peer analysis, a conservative 4% CoR is assumed for Qfin’s platform, which lacks underwriting or credit guarantees.
- Regulatory impact lowers expected RoE by ~2pts. With an 18% CoE, fair value is ~$43/share, implying ~60% total return and supporting a positive investment outlook.
Predictive/Robex’s Merger Of Equals
- The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
- Via a “definitive plan of arrangement“, Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share. Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
- The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex’s shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.
A Clear Understanding of the Narrative Around Easing Bank–Industry Separation in Korea
- The reason why the president’s office is considering temporarily easing bank–industry separation is to facilitate funding for the 150T won National Growth Fund.
- Samsung and SK may form bank-backed JVs to fund AI semis, HBM, and data center projects, enabling flexible capital deployment across the AI semiconductor ecosystem.
- Chaebol holdings with direct AI exposure could gain smoother access to big-ticket funding, potentially sparking continued aggressive short-term flows around Samsung and SK holdings post-Chuseok.
Weekly Update (CTVA, SFGI/8729, UNTC, MEDXF, IDT)
- On October 1, 2025, Corteva Biosciences (CTVA) announced that it plans to break up into two public companies.
- The logic behind the spin-off announcement is that the SpinCo has higher margins and better growth potential.
For example, the SpinCo has grown EBITDA at a 16% CAGR since 2020 and has a 26% EBITDA margin.
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