In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
- Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong
- Reject Shop (TRS AU): 23rd June Vote On Dollarama’s Offer
- Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report
[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History
- Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan’s effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.
- This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn’t even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.
- We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025): AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
- AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
- I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers
- We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Smartpay Holdings (SPY NZ), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share.
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Dada Nexus (DADA US), Nissin Corp (9066 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Fujitsu General (6755 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP).
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
- Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
Reject Shop (TRS AU): 23rd June Vote On Dollarama’s Offer
- Back on the 27th March, Reject Shop (TRS AU), a discount variety store, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Canadian outfit Dollarama (DOL CN).
- Dollarama Offered A$6.68/share, a 112% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the backing of TRS’ largest shareholder, Kin Group (20.8%).
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 23 June, and expected payment on or before the 22nd July. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.
Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report
- Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
- The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door).
- Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.
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