In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III – Elliott Makes Its Case
- Same Product, Two Different Prices – The GOLD’en Opportunity
- CKH (1 HK): The Courts (Predictably) Annul The Panama Concessions. Now What?
- Same Metal, Two Prices: Why Physical Silver Is Signalling a Market Mismatch
- Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (December 2025 & January 2026)
- Docebo Announces $60M Odd-Lot Tender Offer Amidst Declining Share Price and Strategic Shareholder Moves
[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III – Elliott Makes Its Case
- This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF’s average buy price is <¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.
- But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still.
- Post-Close today, BidCo said “[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]”. That tells me and many others, Bidco isn’t the right buyer.
Same Product, Two Different Prices – The GOLD’en Opportunity
- The price gap between gold on the US Comex and in Shanghai has widened and is significantly larger than normal.
- Price divergence is due to paper vs. physical – the US is mainly driven by futures and paper trading, while Shanghai is real physical supply and demand.
- Arbitrage is not possible due to logistical and regulatory barriers. The gap will have to narrow, with paper gold heading higher to match the physical price!
CKH (1 HK): The Courts (Predictably) Annul The Panama Concessions. Now What?
- It was a sure bet Panama’s highest court would annul CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s Panama Ports Company (PPC) port contracts. Less clear are the next steps.
- The Panamanian government has tapped AP Moeller – Maersk A/S (MAERSKB DC)‘s APM Terminals as the temporary administrator – or “neutral stabiliser” – via a phased handover of the ports.
- PPC has already indicated it will seek a “clarification” of the ruling. And CKH can still sue the Republic of Panama in international tribunals.
Same Metal, Two Prices: Why Physical Silver Is Signalling a Market Mismatch
- Silver prices in Shanghai continue to trade at a persistent premium to Western benchmarks, signalling tight physical supply that paper-driven futures markets are not yet reflecting.
- Structural deficits, falling inventories, and rising industrial demand are weakening arbitrage mechanisms, allowing regional silver price gaps to persist far longer than historical norms.
- Physical markets lead price discovery. The futures market typically adjusts higher or volatility rises. We think Silver will head back to USD100/oz by the end of 1Q-26.
Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (December 2025 & January 2026)
- In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in the Korean stock market in December 2025 and January 2026.
- We provide a list of 18 companies in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in December 2025 and January 2026.
- There were five companies with more than 200 billion won in market cap that announced share buybacks in the past two months with at least 1% of outstanding shares.
Docebo Announces $60M Odd-Lot Tender Offer Amidst Declining Share Price and Strategic Shareholder Moves
- Docebo plans a $60 million tender offer at $20.40/share, prioritizing odd-lot holders for no proration.
- Intercap Equity, holding 56.6% of Docebo, isn’t participating, targeting 24% of the free float in tender.
- Docebo’s management signals undervaluation with tender; Warburg Pincus exits, selling its 12% stake at $18.77/share.
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