In today’s briefing:
- M&A Battle for TaylorMade
- StubWorld: Wilmar Trading “Cheap” To YKA. Understandably.
- HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry
- Trading Halt on 79 NXT Stocks in Korea: Screening Key Names to Watch for Spread Plays
- Smart Share Global: An Interesting Merger Arb Play
- Q&A with Magnera IR
M&A Battle for TaylorMade
- TaylorMade is up for sale. TaylorMade is one of the most valuable, golf equipment brands globally.
- We labeled this article as Bearish due to concerns about F&F getting into this M&A battle for TaylorMade in the first place which could result in overpaying for this deal.
- We would rather have F&F take the win and provide higher returns to its shareholders.
StubWorld: Wilmar Trading “Cheap” To YKA. Understandably.
- Wilmar International (WIL SP) is coming up “cheap” to 90%-held Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings C (300999 CH); yet implied stub numbers suggests otherwise.
- Preceding my comments on Wilmar are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
HMM Tender Side Play: Targeting a Basis Squeeze Ahead of Sep Expiry
- Most traders are starting in September, rolling into October. Sep/Oct spread volume has picked up unusually fast, clearly reflecting hedge demand linked to the tender
- As September expiry approaches, basis-squeeze risk rises, likely pushing September cheap and October expensive, widening the spread — creating a clear side trade opportunity.
- With a basis squeeze expected near September expiry, we could enter a Sep/Oct spread (short Sep, long Oct) and also watch for spot-futures decoupling to play the cash-futures spread.
Trading Halt on 79 NXT Stocks in Korea: Screening Key Names to Watch for Spread Plays
- NXT’s halt will be live tomorrow, likely shaking local flows. With 15–20% tape share, blocked tickers spill to KRX, thinning books, widening spreads, and hitting retail-heavy liquidity.
- When NXT goes dark, books thin, fills slip, and prices swing sharply — widening spreads and creating risk (or alpha) in retail-heavy tickers for short-term or intraday trades.
- Below is a hit list of 500B+ KRW stocks where NXT takes 40%+ volume — watch these Phase 1 tickers as trading halts shake up flow and spreads.
Smart Share Global: An Interesting Merger Arb Play
- Smart Share Global (EM US) , previously known as “Energy Monster”, is a rather interesting merger arbitrage situation.
- It provides a unique risk/reward balance analogous to the famous adage, “heads I win, tails I don’t lose too much”.
- In this note, we examine the company and the merger dynamics.
Q&A with Magnera IR
- I expect relatively stable revenue in fiscal 2026 (flat to slightly down), barring a macro shock.
- However, with progress on synergies (65% of the $55MM net synergy target expected to be realized in fiscal 2026) and Project CORE (more on this below), I believe adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow will grow.
- I continue to be impressed with the management team. Their focus is on generating cash, shaped by their experience running Berry under several different private equity sponsors (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Apollo).
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