In today’s briefing:
- Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer
- HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair
- Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play
- Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Technopro, Infomedia, Kolon Mobility, Iress, HKBN, Furukawa Battery
- S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut
- Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140
Toyo Construction (1890 JP): Taisei (1801 JP)’s Bittersweet Tender Offer
- Toyo Construction (1890 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Taisei Corp (1801 JP) at JPY1,750, a 6.4% premium to the last close of JPY1,644.
- Unusually, Taisei has set the lower limit of the tender plus irrevocables at a 55.43% ownership ratio, below the two-thirds EGM share consolidation vote threshold.
- Despite the low premium, this is a done deal due to irrevocables from the two previous competing bidders (INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP), YFO), who are also the two largest shareholders.
HKBN (1310 HK): Response Doc Out. IFA Says Fair
- After a protracted period towards securing the necessary regulatory approvals, this transaction has since accelerated.
- Just two days after the Offer Doc was issued, the Response Doc has now been dispatched.
- The IFA (Somerley) says China Mobile (941 HK)‘s terms are fair & reasonable. The First Close is the 3rd September. Expect the Offer to turn unconditional before that date.
Korea Local Banks: New Dividend Tax Effectively Locks in a De Facto Minimum Yield Play
- We’ve got a locked-in floor on ’26 DPS and clear upside, providing a solid dividend yield baseline—ideal for leaning into aggressive trade setups.
- We can lean into spot longs with covered calls, but yields (especially KB, Shinhan) aren’t yet compelling. A pullback before the ’26 dividend run is a prime entry window.
- Plus, a bank long-short: long KB/Shinhan, short Hana/Woori. KB and Shinhan face payout increases, with ’26 guidance in 4Q25 earnings as the catalyst.
Last Week In Event SPACE: Soul Patts/Brickworks, Furukawa Battery, PCCW, TPG Telecom
- There is, or perhaps, was, imbedded value via the cross-holding. However, Soul Patts (SOL AU) & Brickworks (BKW AU)‘s combined market cap has increased 18% or A$3.1bn since announcing their merger.
- Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) is a VERY low-priced MBO-like transaction. The pricing process is unacceptable. It is a take-under. It is BAD process. But it’ll get done.
- For a company that has consistently spilled red ink at the stub level, there is no justification why PCCW Ltd (8 HK) would/should trade at a NAV premium.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Technopro, Infomedia, Kolon Mobility, Iress, HKBN, Furukawa Battery
- I tally 41 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Five new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU),Ci Medical (3540 JP), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Technopro Holdings (6028 JP), and Kolon Mobility (450140 KS).
- Key updates/news took place on Iress Ltd (IRE AU), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Tourism Holdings (THL NZ), and Furukawa Battery (6937 JP).
S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 Index) Ahead of 12 Aug RBA Decision: Markets Divided, but I Vote for a 35bps Cut
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 12 August 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
- Highlight: Markets are divided between a 0.25% and 0.50% rate cut. Discover my unique take, which differs from both expectations, and the reasoning behind it.
- Why Read: Fixed income and equity derivatives markets are sending conflicting signals. Dive into the historical market impact of each possible scenario to better navigate the uncertainty.
Ashimori Industry (3526 JP): Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP)’s Tender Offer at JPY4,140
- Ashimori Industry (3526 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Toyoda Gosei (7282 JP) at JPY4,140, a 43.8% premium to the last close.
- The offer is attractive as it represents a ten-year high, implies a P/B of 1.00x and above the mid-point of the target IFA DCF valuation range.
- Despite the lack of irrevocables, the shareholder register facilitates deal completion. The tender runs from 12 August to 24 September, with payment from 30 September.
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