In today’s briefing:
- Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer
- StubWorld: Sumitomo Chemical/Sumitomo Pharma, Hyundai Motor/ Kia Corp, Ecopro Co/Ecopro BM
- [Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) – Murakami at 20% and Mandom Offers A Sweet Poison Pill
- Reading the Latest Flow Patterns to Time a SK Square NAV Squeeze Trade
- Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing
- Australia’s Big Banks: Options Flash Mixed Signals Ahead of Earnings
- ABF – Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?
Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Market Movements Support the Case of a Higher Offer
- Last month, nearly two dozen global asset managers, through ACGA, submitted a joint letter to the boards of Toyota Industries (6201 JP) and Toyota Motor regarding the tender offer.
- The letter outlined five issues, which distilled down to concerns about a low-balled offer. Their cause is increasingly supported by market movements, which support the case for the bump.
- Recent activism against several low-balled tenders signals that TICO, despite its size, is not immune. My SoTP valuation is JPY19,607, which is 20.3% above the offer price.
StubWorld: Sumitomo Chemical/Sumitomo Pharma, Hyundai Motor/ Kia Corp, Ecopro Co/Ecopro BM
- For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco’s trading at extreme levels, in both “set-up” and “unwind” territory.
- Preceding the chart/table-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
[Japan Activism] Mandom (4917 JP) – Murakami at 20% and Mandom Offers A Sweet Poison Pill
- Mandom Corp (4917 JP) yesterday decided to launch a question-response effort for the Murakami-san Group ownership of Mandom shares up to and above 20%. This is a Poison Pill precursor.
- There’s a drawn out set of questions, answers, etc, at the end of which, the Independent Committee will decide that Murakami is a Bad Person and the Poison Pill proceeds.
- Murakami Group is apparently now over 20%. That’s a little tricky. But this looks like a Good Poison Pill.
Reading the Latest Flow Patterns to Time a SK Square NAV Squeeze Trade
- Retail flow drove the ratio: selling pushed it higher, buying dragged it lower. Pre‑Sept they dip‑bought and flipped; since late Sept they’ve chased longs, fueling Hynix’s rally.
- Instos joined retail chasing Hynix, juicing momentum; KRX’s investment‑alert acts as a speed bump, likely cooling hot‑money flows and tilting the ratio in Square’s favor.
- But retail still drives Hynix; until they cool off, Square NAV squeeze is early. A sector‑wide AI pivot cooling retail frenzy is the real catalyst, bigger than KRX’s alert.
Physicswallah IPO: Index Inclusion Possibilities & Timing
- Physicswallah Limited (2076103D IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling 319.26m shares via a primary and secondary offering to raise US$392m at a valuation of US$3.5bn.
- The price band has been set at INR 103-109/share, and the issue is likely to price at the top end of the range.
- The stock will be added to the AMFI Smallcap segment and inclusion in the Nifty Smallcap 250 index is likely in March. Global index inclusion could commence in June.
Australia’s Big Banks: Options Flash Mixed Signals Ahead of Earnings
- Australia’s largest banks are due to report within the next four trading days. Collectively, they account for 23% of the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
- A beat or miss of expectations can result in a strong move, up or down. This Insight analyzes options to provide an indication of how big a move to expect.
- Option traders price in outsized moves for several but not all banks, with ANZ (ANZ AU) as the largest outlier.
ABF – Primark Separation: Governance Reset or Value Catalyst?
- ABF’s structural review could separate Primark from Food, unlocking value through clearer governance and capital allocation focus.
- Our SOTP yields £26/share base case, implying ~17% upside to current price.
- Event-Driven setup favours long ABF vs discretionary peers into April 2026 review conclusion.
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