In today’s briefing:
- [Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
- Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs
- S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights
- HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery
- Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity
- Hybridan Research: TMT Investments: Technology Delivering Value
- The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services
- Region (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) – Trade Exit and Take Profit
- Tech Talk: Solana DeFi Chain What? Why? And How Big?
[Quiddity Index] S&P500/600 Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Intra-Review Changes Possible
- The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
- In this insight, we take a look at the upcoming constituent changes in the run up to the September 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two regular changes in September 2025. There are also multiple live M&A events which are likely to trigger intra-review index changes.
Shinhan Financial Group Placement – Clean-Up Trade but Stock Is at All Time-Highs
- Affinity Equity Partners is looking to raise around US$425m via selling 1.9% of its stake in Shinhan Financial (055550 KS).
- Affinity had sold half of its stake earlier in 2024, when the company witnessed a number of selldowns in 1H24.
- In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
- The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
- We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.
HDB Financial IPO: Valuation Insights
- HDB Financial Services Ltd (0117739D IN) is India’s seventh-largest non-banking financial company (NBFC). It is seeking to raise Rs125 billion (US$1.4 billion).
- I discussed the fundamentals in HDB Financial IPO: The Investment Case. The shares will be listed on 2 July.
- My valuation analysis suggests the HDB is fully priced at the IPO price range of Rs 700- 740 per share. I would avoid the IPO.
HDB Financial Services IPO – Strong Franchise, Solid Backing, But Pricing Demands Delivery
- Offer: ₹12,500 crore IPO (₹2,500 crore fresh issue + ₹10,000 crore OFS); price band ₹700–740 implies a ₹61,250 crore valuation.
- Track Record & Use of Funds: 15% AUM CAGR and 41% PAT CAGR over FY21–25; proceeds to bolster Tier-1 capital and fund growth.
- Valuation Caution: Backed by HDFC Bank with deep rural reach, but 3.9x P/BV implies a 27% ROE—well above current levels—leaving little margin for execution slippage.
Kospi200: Elevated Returns, Historical Extremes and Optionality Opportunity
- We assess whether recent returns have been extreme and put yesterday’s sharp rally in context.
- The evolution of volatility following past extreme states is examined.
- Rationale for using optionality in this stretched price environment is outlined.
Hybridan Research: TMT Investments: Technology Delivering Value
- There are updates on three shares in TMT’s portfolio of globally diversified IT investments of over 50 companies The focus is primarily on AI, Big Data/Cloud, Ecommerce, Edtech, Mobility, FinTech and SaaS (Software-as-a-Service).
- There is a revaluation uplift of 138% ($0.7m) in the fair value of TMT’s holding in its portfolio company Scale, compared to the value as at FY 31 December 2024.
- Scale is a humanity-first GenAI company https://scale.com.
The Beat Ideas: Poonawalla Fincorp Ltd.- Leading the Charge in Digital-First Financial Services
- Poonawalla Fincorp is targeting a 5–6x AUM growth over five years, driven by new product launches, digital innovation, and branch expansion in the gold loan segment.
- Backed by the Cyrus Poonawalla Group and led by seasoned professionals, the company’s low cost of borrowing and tech-first approach enhances its competitive positioning in the NBFC space.
- The shift toward secured lending, digital underwriting, and MSME focus suggests a more resilient and scalable growth model, improving visibility on profitability and asset quality.
Region (RGN AU) Vs. Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) – Trade Exit and Take Profit
- Context: This article provides an update on a previously identified pair trading opportunity between Waypoint REIT (WPR AU) and Region (RGN AU), based on statistical mean reversion analysis.
- Key Insights: The trade has now reached its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
- Why Read It: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.
Tech Talk: Solana DeFi Chain What? Why? And How Big?
- Solana is a high-performance blockchain platform that is designed to host decentralized, scalable applications.
- It can process thousands of transactions per second, significantly more than many other blockchains, including Bitcoin or Ethereum (though Ethereum 2.0 aims to improve its scalability).
- This high throughput makes it suitable for applications that require rapid processing, such as decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, non-fungible token (NFT) marketplaces, and gaming.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
