In today’s briefing:
- Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
- Nuvama Wealth: The “Blessing in Disguise” Amidst Market Jitters in Jane Street Case
- The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth
- Credila Financial Services Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) Outlook Amid Overblown Passive Inflows And NIM Pressures
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- ASR Nederland NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
- ANZ Group (ANZ AU) Vs. National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage Pays Off
Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Another Hobson’s Choice
- After Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK) was suspended, again, I mused in Jilin Jiutai Bank (6122 HK): Now Is The Time To Be Delisted an expected Offer from Jilin Province Trust.
- Jilin Province has now made a voluntary Offer at HK$0.70/share (~0.2x P/B!), below my HK$0.80/share estimate. Apart from a Scheme-like vote, this Offer has an onerous 90% acceptance condition.
- And IF the Offer fails and IF Jilin Jiutai cannot resume trading, in accordance with Rule 6.01A(2)(b) of the Listing Rules, Jilin Jiutai may be delisted.
Nuvama Wealth: The “Blessing in Disguise” Amidst Market Jitters in Jane Street Case
- Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN)‘s stock fell sharply due to SEBI barring Jane Street, its domestic trading partner, over alleged market manipulation, despite no direct accusations against Nuvama.
- This dip is an overreaction; Nuvama’s strong wealth/asset management (74% revenue) and robust FY26 growth guidance insulate it from Capital Markets segment impact (26%). PAG’s ongoing exit also signals value.
- The market correction presents a “blessing in disguise,” opportunity into a fundamentally strong, diversified Indian financial services firm.
The Beat Ideas: Capri Global Capital: Small-Ticket Loans, Big-Ticket Growth
- Capri Global’s foray into merchant banking, investment banking, and wealth management signals a major shift towards becoming a full-spectrum financial services provider, broadening its business model.
- With a target of reaching INR 50,000 crore AUM in the next three years, CGCL is positioning itself for significant expansion in India’s underserved financial segments, highlighting strong growth potential.
- By integrating AI, data science, and machine learning into its operations, Capri Global is enhancing underwriting, improving customer acquisition, and streamlining business processes, positioning itself for sustained competitive advantage.
Credila Financial Services Pre-IPO Tearsheet
- Credila Financial Services Ltd (3452223Z IN) is looking to raise about US$584m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis, Citi, IIFL, Jefferies and GS.
- Credila Financial Services (CFSL) is an Indian education finance company focused on providing education loans to Indian students pursuing higher education in India and overseas.
- It was the largest education-focused non-banking financial company (NBFC) in India, in terms of net loans and net profit in FY25, according to a Redseer Report.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) Outlook Amid Overblown Passive Inflows And NIM Pressures
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)’s shares have surged >80% since November2023, outpacing its underlying profit growth and dividend yields. Passive‐index ETF reallocations are the primary driver of this rally.
- A Reuters poll forecasts the RBA will cut rates by 25 bps to 3.60% on July 8—with further cuts likely into year‐end. This will compress NIMs, a key earnings driver for CBA.
- This insight marks the start of our coverage for CBA: the stock closed this week down (CC -1) reaching oversold levels, it can bounce but the rally potential appears limited.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- Treasury yields jumped yesterday, led by the short-end, as a stronger than expected nonfarm payrolls report drove traders to exit bets on a July rate cut.
- As of yesterday, Fed-dated OIS were pricing in an almost zero chance of a rate decrease in July, along with 51 bps of cuts by year-end (vs. 65 bps as of Wednesday).
- The yield on the 2Y UST rose 10 bps to 3.88%, while the yield on the 10Y UST was up 7 bps at 4.35%.
ASR Nederland NV – What’s News in Amsterdam
- In this edition: • Ahold Delhaize | rival Jumbo reports having made good progress in 1H25 • ASR Nederland | to become the sole shareholder of HumanTotalCare • BAM Group | HAL to acquire VolkerWessels’ operations in the Netherlands • PostNL | new parcels depot in Belgium • E-commerce/E-com Logistics | EUR 2/item handling fee on low value parcels is “a joke”
ANZ Group (ANZ AU) Vs. National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage Pays Off
- Context: This article provides an update on the Insight Long ANZ (ANZ AU), Short National Australia Bank (NAB AU): Banking on Statistical Arbitrage, published on 22 June 2025.
- Key Insights: The trade has hit its exit signal as the price ratio reverted to its one-standard deviation band, yielding a positive return.
- Why Read: For investors interested in quantitative trading strategies, this article demonstrates how statistical arbitrage can generate short-term alpha and highlights actionable similar opportunities in the current market.
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