In today’s briefing:
- Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]
- ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote
- Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target
- Tata Capital Pre-IPO – The Positives – Will Ride High on the Brand Name
- S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP
- Klarna Group (KLAR): Commerce Provider Seeks $14b IPO Valuation After Lengthy Delay
- The Philippines’ BPO-Driven Office Recovery: Resurgence and Resilience. LONG Ayala Land.
- Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Winklevoss Crypto-Platform Seeking $2.2b IPO Valuation
- Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Sets Terms Seeking $4.1 Billion Valuation
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Alipay: Issuing EB Worth 627 Billion Won Backed By Its Shares in Kakao Pay [A Quasi Block Deal Sale]
- Alipay (second largest shareholder of Kakaopay (377300 KS)) is issuing an overseas exchangeable bonds (EB) worth 627 billion won (backed by its shares in Kakao Pay).
- The exchange price of the EB is 54,744 won (4.5% discount to current price). Total amount of EB issue is 627 billion won ($450 million).
- This deal is basically a quasi-block deal. Alipay is trying to unload some of its stake in Kakao Pay to improve its finances.
ZEEKR (ZK US): Widening Scrip Spread Ahead Of Geely EGM Vote
- On the 15th July, Geely Auto (175 HK), China’s second-largest carmaker, firmed a cash or scrip Offer for 62.8%-held ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
- ZEEKR has traded through the cash terms US$26.87/ADS from the onset; but at a discount to the scrip terms. The scrip spread has widened recently.
- The Offer is low-balled. However, Geely’s stake plus Li Shufu (founder)’s 10.61% holdings push the Offer through. Geely’s EGM is this Friday (7th July). Li (41.34%) is required to abstain.
Kyoto Financial Group (5844 JP): Disposals Plan for Equity Holdings Warrants More Ambitious Target
- Kyoto Financial has equity holdings relative to market cap of 135%, well above its larger cap Japanese peer banks, and amounting to a market value of over JPY1.1trillion
- Management has stated that it is targeting JPY100bn+ of disposals in terms of market value by March 2029, but we believe that the market expected more
- Sizeable disposals of equity holdings is Kyoto’s primary source of prospective shareholder value creation; aside from this, its fundamental attractions are limited and so we downgrade Kyoto to a neutral
Tata Capital Pre-IPO – The Positives – Will Ride High on the Brand Name
- Tata Capital Limited is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
- Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
- In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.
S&P500 September 2025 Final Forecast: HOOD, EME & 50/50 on MSTR/APP
- Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition due to consistently high eligibility scores.
- Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) or AppLovin (APP US) is forecasted to be the third addition, with sector balance acting as the limiting factor.
- CRH (CRH US) recently regained eligibility following positive August earnings and could be a surprise addition if the tech sector is excluded.
Klarna Group (KLAR): Commerce Provider Seeks $14b IPO Valuation After Lengthy Delay
- Klarna will offer 34.3 million shares at $35-$37 and is scheduled to debut on Wednesday (9/10).
- Total revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2025 increased by $199 million, or 15% (17% on a like-for-like basis), compared to the six months ended June 30, 2024.
- A “buy-now, pay-later” competitor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM US), has been trading extremely well since April.
The Philippines’ BPO-Driven Office Recovery: Resurgence and Resilience. LONG Ayala Land.
- The Philippines is on a strong economic recovery, supported by supportive macroeconomic landscape and expansion of Business Processing Outsourcing (BPO)
- The office market is also recovering strongly, supported by BPO demand. We think it is a structural fundamental improvement, not a simple cyclical recovery
- We LONG Ayala Land. It is currently at 9.7x PE, versus 10-year average of 20.4x.
Gemini Space Station, Inc. (GEMI): Winklevoss Crypto-Platform Seeking $2.2b IPO Valuation
- Gemini will offer 16.67 million shares at $17-$19 and is scheduled to debut on Friday, September 12th.
- The underwriters have reserved up to 1,666,667 shares of Class A common stock, or 10% of the shares offered by this prospectus, for sale through a directed share program.
- A $400 million growth equity round valued Gemini at $7.1 billion in November 2021. This funding round is significantly below that higher round.
Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR): Blockchain Lender Sets Terms Seeking $4.1 Billion Valuation
- Figure Solutions is offering 26.3 million shares at $18-$20 and will debut on Thursday, September 11th.
- Duquesne Family Office LLC has indicated an interest in purchasing up to an aggregate of $50 million of shares as an anchor order.
- Figure has grown quickly and profitably, with net income of $29 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $83 million, for the six months ended June 30, 2025.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Seazen Group
- The US market was closed for Labour Day yesterday.
- Contracted sales for China’s Top 100 developers in August declined 18% y-o-y and 2% m-o-m to CNY 207 bn (albeit narrowing from -24% y-o-y in July), according to CRIC.
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