In today’s briefing:
- Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k
- The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
- Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK
- Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Specialty Insurance Marketplace with Strong Tailwinds, Sets Terms for IPO
- Samara Asset Group – Q1 2025 Portfolio and NAV Development
Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.
- Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.
- The index’s latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model’s Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).
The Beat Ideas: LIC Housing Finance- RoA at Decade High, Valuation Near Lows?
- India’s largest HF company with a stable loan book, supported by LIC’s parentage and a focus on salaried home loans, shows its fundamental strength.
- The company demonstrates robust operational performance, marked by a decade-high 1.83% Return on Assets (RoA) and a competitive 16% Return on Equity (ROE).
- It targets future growth by efficiently managing borrowing costs and strategically diversifying into higher-margin segments like project finance and LAP/LRD.
Hong Kong Office Market: Persistent Vacancy and Rental Pressure – SHORT Champion REIT 2778 HK
- The Hong Kong office market is now facing multiple headwinds including an oversupply, persistently weak demand and slowdown in Chinese corporates expansion
- Accordingly, the availability rate In Hong Kong office rose to record high, reaching 19.3% as of Q2 2025, according to Cushman. Vacancy rate in Central is at 13%
- We are bearish on Champion REIT, given its direct exposure to HK Grade A office market
Accelerant Holdings (ARX): Specialty Insurance Marketplace with Strong Tailwinds, Sets Terms for IPO
- Accelerant Holdings is offering 28.947mm shares at $18.00-$20.00 equating to a market cap of $4.0b-$4.4b and is scheduled to debut on July 24th.
- As of June 30, 2025 they have 248 Members as compared to 186 Members as of June 30, 2024 (and 232 Members as of March 31, 2025).
- Given the positive tailwind from recent insurance-related IPOs as well as the strong metrics released in the company’s “flash numbers”, we believe this company could potentially be “well-received”.
Samara Asset Group – Q1 2025 Portfolio and NAV Development
- During the first quarter of 2025, Samara Asset Group experienced a decline in net asset value, driven largely by volatility in its principal assets.
- As of March 31, gross asset value stood at approximately 255.3 million euros, while net asset value settled at around 210.9 million euros.
- This marks a reduction from year-end levels of 297.4 million euros for gross assets and 245.2 million euros for net assets.
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