In today’s briefing:
- Norwegian Billionaire Øystein Spetalen’s Mandatory Bid for SAGA Pure
- China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy
- Coinbase’s Steep Drop Might Make It Interesting, But It Hasn’t Made It Cheap
- Taking Stock Off the Market: Alba’s Final Call
- ICBC (1398 HK) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy
Norwegian Billionaire Øystein Spetalen’s Mandatory Bid for SAGA Pure
- Øystein Spetalen’s 50% ownership in SAGA Pure triggers a mandatory bid, with shares trading at 1.31 NOK.
- SAGA’s NAV is 1.79-1.87 NOK/share, with potential value from SDSD acquisition, contrasting with the mandatory bid price.
- SAGA’s shareholder base is mostly retail, unlike SDSD, affecting potential bid strategies and investor expectations.
China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy
- China Construction Bank H (939 HK) / China Construction Bank (601939 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:00-18:15, Beijing time.
- Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate muted price action after earnings.
- Dividend Outlook: CCB has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.4% for H shares and 4.7% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.
Coinbase’s Steep Drop Might Make It Interesting, But It Hasn’t Made It Cheap
- Coinbase’s recent plunge might make this crypto exchange look like a tempting buy, but don’t assume it’s a bargain just yet.
- Regulatory clarity is key for wider crypto adoption, and the new administration is likely to approve stablecoin and market structure laws later this year.
- To justify a higher valuation, the firm needs to build a more diverse and stable revenue stream that’s less dependent on transaction fees from trading.
Taking Stock Off the Market: Alba’s Final Call
- Corporación Financiera Alba’s delisting offer runs from today until April 24, 2025, offering €84.20 per share with a 0.60% gross spread and no intention to implement a squeeze-out.
- With shares trading at €83.70 and low daily liquidity (~€1 million), the offer presents a 6.05% annualized return for investors tendering into the deal by the estimated May 2 settlement.
- Despite a 15.6% NAV discount, arbitrage through shorting Alba’s listed assets is complex and likely only feasible for institutional investors with efficient execution and access to shorting facilities.
ICBC (1398 HK) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy
- ICBC (H) (1398 HK) / ICBC (A) (601398 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:30-18:30, Beijing time.
- Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate price action comparable to that of a typical trading day.
- Dividend Outlook: ICBC has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.0% for H shares and 4.5% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.
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