In today’s briefing:
- [Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
- Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names
- Sony Financial Spin-Off: Valuation Discount Meets Capital Discipline
- State of Tokenized Stocks (September 2025)
- The Beat Ideas: Nuvama Wealth – India’s Affluence Story at the Right Price?
- Anand Rathi IPO: A Premium Play in India’s Brokerage Market?
- Hang Seng Index (HSI) Tactical Outlook: Small Pulback or Large Pullback?
[Japan Event] Sony Financial Spin-Off Trades Monday – Fina(Ncia)L Thoughts
- Today is the last day of trading for Sony Corp (6758 JP) with Sony Financial Group (8729 JP) spin-off rights. SFGI starts trading separately on Monday 29 Sep.
- The reference price is ¥150/share. It will likely stay in all major indices except Nikkei 225, and it likely needs low ¥160s to stay in M _ _ _.
- The estimated Div Yield is higher on SFGI than peers by a fair ways, and looks to grow, and there is a big buyback to come. I like it.
Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec25: Intra-Review Changes Galore; High-Impact Replacement Names
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
- We see five M&A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index prior to the December 2025 rebal and then three more after the rebal event.
- Our latest estimates suggest there could be no regular changes for the F100 and F250 indexes during the December 2025 rebalance.
Sony Financial Spin-Off: Valuation Discount Meets Capital Discipline
- Spin-Off unlocks scale: Sony Financial (~¥23 tn assets) carved out from Sony, with ~¥250 bn market cap and ~¥200 bn free float.
- Balance-Sheet heavy, rate-sensitive: Core life insurance business (~80–85% of profits) supported by strong solvency (ESR 189%).
- Catalysts: Forced selling post-listing, earnings delivery, 40–50% payout policy, and likely TOPIX inclusion within 6–12 months.
State of Tokenized Stocks (September 2025)
- Tokenized Stocks Show Strong On-Chain Supply Growth: The tokenized stocks on-chain market value (ex-EXOD) has grown to an estimated $127M, up 14x YTD (as of 6 Sep 2025; $342M inclusive of EXOD), driven by the launch of Backed’s xStocks and Ondo Global Markets.
- Are Tokenized Stocks Real Stocks? The two main stock tokenization models are synthetic structure and native issuance.
- Both provide exposure to the return of the underlying stock, but native issuance aims to give investors true ownership rights.
The Beat Ideas: Nuvama Wealth – India’s Affluence Story at the Right Price?
- Nuvama Wealth is capitalizing on India’s burgeoning financialization trend, with its re-branding and strategic focus on affluent and ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNIs) driving strong growth in client assets and profitability.
- As India’s wealth management market matures and faces increasing regulatory scrutiny, Nuvama’s differentiated model position it uniquely to capture a larger share of the shifting landscape.
- Nuvama’s integrated platform and execution-focused management team are navigating industry-wide challenges, from tightening regulatory framework to sustain a growth trajectory that is outperforming peers and creating long-term value.
Anand Rathi IPO: A Premium Play in India’s Brokerage Market?
- Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, a three-decade-old full-service brokerage house, is set to go public with a fresh issue to fund its working capital and expansion.
- The offering provides a window into a mature, brand-led brokerage with an industry-leading Average Revenue per Client (ARPC) and a strong presence across Tier I, II, and III cities.
- The company’s structural strengths, including its Margin Trading Facility (MTF) business and client vintage, position it for sustained growth in India’s evolving capital markets.
Hang Seng Index (HSI) Tactical Outlook: Small Pulback or Large Pullback?
- As suggested in our previous insight, the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) rally was at risk of pulling back: a small correction began last week.
- The big question now: is this just a minor 1-week pullback (a buy-the-dip opportunity)? or a larger pullback, possibly directed towards 23k?
- This insight discusses the various tactical scenarios, including profit targets for a continuation of the rally from here.
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