Daily Brief Financials: Tata Capital Limited, Metaplanet, Klarna Group, DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, S&P/ASX 200, Mediobanca SpA, Japan Post Bank, 360 Finance, Inc., Halyk Savings Bank of Kazakhstan, Migalo Holdings and more

• Tata Capital Limited (TATACAP IN) is looking to raise up to US$2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
• Tata Capital Limited (TCL) is the flagship financial services company of the Tata group and a subsidiary of Tata Sons Private Limited.
• In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

• Metaplanet (3350 JP) is looking to raise around US$1bn from a primary placement.
• The deal is a relatively small one, representing 4.8 days of the stock’s three month ADV, despite being 22.8% of total shares outstanding.
• In this note, we look at Metaplanet and its peers.

• Klarna is getting ready to complete its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange.
• Klarna is offering 34.3 million shares at $35 to $37 per share. At the high end of the IPO price range, the company would be able to raise $1.27 billion.
• Our base case valuation is 5.4% lower than the low end of the IPO price range. Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of the Klarna IPO. 

• DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
• Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
• Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.

• In our latest ASX200 insight, posted on Aug 22nd, we wrote: “The index could rally one more week (next week), that should be the end of this rally“. 
• The rally ended last week, as predicted: the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) is falling this week,  it has already reached OVERSOLD support levels according to our model.
• Attached you can find an Excel file with all the data (key supp/res level with probabilities, check row # 12), our new forecast in detailed in the insight.

• BMPS raises terms to 2.533 BMPS shares plus €0.90 cash per Mediobanca share, waiving the two-thirds condition while retaining a 35% minimum—shifting sentiment to a modest, positive convergence setup.
• Timeline tight: board review this week; acceptance deadline 8 September; results and settlement mid-September unless terms change, which could trigger re-opening and push closing toward late September or early October.
• Best expression remains long Mediobanca, short 2.533× BMPS per share; a 1% BMPS move shifts implied consideration ~€0.19 (≈1% of MB), so maintain a disciplined hedge into catalysts and headlines.

• The bank is starting to perform both absolutely and relative to both the Topix and the Megabanks
• The core thesis is intact as  Net Interest Income improves from a changed asset mix 
• The move into digital currencies is groundbreaking for this institution

• QFIN US is down 30% since July on fear that the Oct 1 regulatory action on 24%+ loans will lead to significant and sustained earnings downgrades.
• QFIN’s industry-leading franchise, risk management history, capital return yield (~18-20%), and strong balance sheet support a strong recovery post-regulatory clarity and cleanup.
• Valuation at 1.2x FY1 P/BV already discounts worst case; QFIN’s recovery potential leaves scope for 100%+ upside (peak valuation at 2.4x in Mar-24 pre-regulation).

Halyk Bank delivered a strong 26.1% y-o-y increase in net profit to KZT253.6bn in Q225, leading to a healthy annualised return on equity (ROE) of 32.2% (up from 31.7% in Q224). Loan book growth moderated in H125, with gross loans to individuals and legal entities increasing by 4.3% and 1.4% versus end-2024, respectively. Management still guides to a solid FY25 net loan portfolio growth of 15–20%, slightly down from 17–22% guided previously, as retail loan growth expectations have been slightly reduced to 15–20%, from 20–25% previously. Halyk’s operating expenses rose by 30.7% y-o-y in Q225, mostly due to an increase in salaries and employee benefits (with a contribution from the recently launched long-term incentive programme) and the expansion of Halyk’s IT headcount to drive its digitalisation agenda. Its cost-to-income ratio (CIR) came in at a low 17.8% in Q225, with management expecting 17–19% in FY25. Halyk’s robust capital ratios of over 18% at end-June 2025 encouraged management to recommend a second dividend from FY24 net income of KZT21.0 per share, which, together with the first payment, represents a 60% payout ratio and at the current share price implies a healthy 14% yield.

• On August 7, MIGALO HOLDINGS Inc. (hereafter, the Company) announced its Q1 FY2026 (April–June) earnings results.
• Net sales increased 4.4% YoY to JPY 14,272 mn, and operating profit increased 23.1% YoY to JPY 975 mn.
• As shown below, progress toward the Company’s full-year forecast got off to a roughly on-schedule start, with 23.8% of net sales and 34.8% of operating profit achieved.