In today’s briefing:
- VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close
- GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go
- EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)
- BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell: A Tough Road Ahead
- Hyundai Motor Securities: FSS Approves A 200 Billion Won Capital Raise + Rising Real Estate PF Risk
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Jan-2025): Gordon Tang raises bid for Suntec REIT.
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
VCredit (2003 HK): Offer Now Open. IFA Says Not Fair. Not Even Close
- Back on the 20 December, VCredit Holdings (2003 HK), a provider of consumer financial services in China, announced a unconditional MGO from Ma Ting Hung, VCredit’s chairman. and concert parties.
- The catch? The Offer Price of HK$1.80/share was a 9.09% discount to undisturbed. It will not be increased.
- VCredit’s Composite Doc is now out, with the Offer open for tendering, with a 3rd February first close. The IFA says “not fair and not reasonable“. Trading 45% through terms.
GJS/Haitong Merger: One Formality Reg To Go
- Back on the 9th October, China’s leading state-backed brokerages Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) (GJS) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK) announced a scrip merger, with GJS the surviving entity.
- Barring a China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)-like obstacle/debacle, this transaction was a wrap. Fortunately, key regulatory approvals (SAMR and SASAC) have been ticked off.
- Approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange was secured overnight. That was a formality. One approval remains – CSRC. Expect that condition to be satisfied shortly. GJS is no longer shortable.
EQD| SPX Volatility During the Trump Years (2017-2020)
- Common perception is that Trump = Volatility. We look at average monthly historic volatility and returns across 2017-2020 and compare with prior 19 years.
- Trumps term in office included “Volmageddon”, the Christmas Massacre and Covid but we still find that the returns and historic volatility were not out of line.
- Although a small sample size, we see a pattern to how historic volatility deviated from the average over his last term in office.
BBVA’s Bid for Sabadell: A Tough Road Ahead
- Lower Acceptance Threshold: BBVA reduced its tender offer threshold to 49.3%, excluding Sabadell’s 1.4% treasury shares to ensure voting rights focus on active shareholders.
- Shareholder and Regulatory Hurdles: Retail shareholder resistance, extended antitrust reviews, and opposition from Spanish and Catalonian governments complicate the takeover.
- Sabadell’s Defensive Moves: A €2.9 billion shareholder return plan, potential treasury share expansion to 10%, and Zurich’s 3% stake further reduce the offer’s likelihood of success.
Hyundai Motor Securities: FSS Approves A 200 Billion Won Capital Raise + Rising Real Estate PF Risk
- On 10 January, it was reported that Hyundai Motor Securities (001500 KS)’s 200 billion won capital increase plan passed the Financial Supervisory Service’s review.
- Based on the recent revised report to the FSS, Hyundai Motor Securities disclosed that there is a risk of loss in domestic real estate PF and overseas real estate investment.
- The company’s decision to proceed with the capital raise is likely to weaken its share price to below its expected rights offering price of 6,640 won in the coming weeks.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Jan-2025): Gordon Tang raises bid for Suntec REIT.
- Gordon Tang increases buyout offer for Suntec REIT in response to investor dissatisfaction with original bid.
- Texas teachers ramp up real estate investments, committing 61% more funds totaling $1.6 billion by 2024.
- The Cheng family of Hong Kong faces challenges as an Australian casino operator experiences a cash shortage, impacting their holdings.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Shui On Land, Country Garden
- In the US, the UST curve bull flattened slightly in a shortened trading session. The yield on the 2Y UST fell 2 bps to 4.27%, while that on the 10Y UST was unchanged at 4.69%.
- The US equity market was closed yesterday, in observance of the national day of mourning for former president Jimmy Carter.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
