In today’s briefing:
- Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion
- Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored
- Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market
- #1 Leadership Bytes(07-Apr-25)
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Trade Tensions Prevail: Reduce Vol Harvesting & Position for +ve Vega.
Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN): OFS & Potential Global Index Inclusion
- Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MAZDOCKS IN) has announced an Offer for Sale of 4.01% of the Government holding in the stock. That is INR 41bn (US$481m) at the last close.
- The increase in float brings the stock very close to inclusion in a global index at the May rebalance. However, that is dependent on how the stock performs from here.
- Inclusion in the index will bring around US$222m/ 2x ADV of passive inflows and could help support the stock.
Jindal Stainless: Near-Term Headwinds Appear to Be Well Factored
- Management has lowered its volume and margin guidance over the last few quarters even as they have gradually lowered their export share to less than 10%.
- Despite a 40% drop from its high over the last few months JDSL trades at premium to its historic valuations. Significant investments in Indonesia to raise capacity is positive
- A 20-25% increase in volumes (through Indonesia investments) over the next 2-3 years coupled with 20% ROIC and Debt <1X EBITDA implies that premium valuations could sustain.
Reliance’s Campa Cola Comeback: Disrupting India’s Soft Drink Market
- Reliance Industries (RIL IN) has relaunched Campa Cola with a disruptive INR 10 price tag, targeting Bharat through regional branding, aggressive retail margins, and deep distribution.
- Campa’s revival is shaking up India’s INR 50,000 crore soft drink market, challenging Pepsi and Coke with rapid share gains and frenzied rural demand.
- This is not nostalgia, it’s Ambani’s Jio-style FMCG disruption. Expect more brand revivals, deeper pricing wars, and a new cola war driven from the grassroots.
#1 Leadership Bytes(07-Apr-25)
- Dixon Technologies India Ltd (DIXON IN), Metropolis Healthcare Limited (METROHL IN), Hitachi Energy India (POWERIND IN) have shared major updates on expansion plans, acquisitions, order growth, and strategic shifts across sectors.
- Each company is taking strategic steps to expand market share, strengthen operations, and tap into emerging growth sectors.
- These updates highlight diverse growth strategies, from Dixon’s manufacturing expansion to Apollo’s focus on defense, suggesting a balanced approach across market leaders.
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Tata Motors
- In the US, the March nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly increased to 228 k (140 k e / 117 k revised p), albeit the February figure was revised downwards to 117 k (from 151 k). The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% (4.1% e / 4.1% p).
- Average hourly earnings came in at 0.3% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% revised p) and 3.8% y-o-y (4.0% e / 4.0% p).
NSE NIFTY50/ Vol Update / Trade Tensions Prevail: Reduce Vol Harvesting & Position for +ve Vega.
- Nifty50 risk premia recovers from depressed levels due to Global trade tensions. Lags global equity Vol-spike. Monthly IVs: 11.0% -> 12.5%. Vol-Regime moves to “Low & Up” state.
- Term-Structure swings into Backwardation in the Front-End, but curve finally settled back in Contango by week’s end. Skew/ Smile characteristics held steady with slight compression in Strangle markups.
- Tactical Implications: (1) Continue reduced exposure to Risk-premia harvesting, (2) Long Vega structures recommended in “Low & Up” vol-state.
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