In today’s briefing:
- Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?
- How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective
- Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR
- ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa
- Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
- Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Nissin Corp (9066 JP): A Rumoured Bain-Sponsored MBO?
- Nissin Corp (9066 JP) shares were up 10.3% based on a Bloomberg report that it would be privatised through a Bain-sponsored MBO.
- The deal is expected to exceed JPY100 billion. Assuming this refers to a market cap, the implied offer price is around JPY6,500 (21.5% premium to last close).
- While the rumoured offer represents an all-time high share price, it is light compared to precedent and peer multiples. A long-dated offer makes it susceptible to a counterbid.
How NXT (ATS) Affects Event Pricing from a Microstructure Perspective
- Next day’s base price uses the 3:30pm close—NXT’s after-hours moves don’t count. That small gap can impact rights offerings, as seen in Samsung SDI’s pricing delta on April 8.
- NXT after-hours volumes count toward VWAP. So in uptrends, they can impact pricing—possibly with Samsung SDI’s final reference price on May 16.
- No shorting allowed after 3:30pm on NXT, leading to inefficiencies—while not yet fit for latency arb, it’s ripe for tactical day–night spread plays and re-entry timing.
Weekly Deals Digest (11 May) – CATL, Hengrui, Imagica, MitShokuhin, NTT Data, Shibaura, Torii, ZEEKR
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are set to launch H Share listings.
- Event-Driven developments: Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP), Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), ZEEKR (ZK US).
ECM Weekly (12 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Ather, Drinda, Green Tea, Swiggy, Sagility, Niva Bupa
- Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
- On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) are gearing up for an IPO launch soon.
- On the placements front, there were two primary placements in Hong Kong, along with a number of lockup expiries coming up.
Escorts Kubota: Constrained by Rich Valuation
- Domestic Tractor Volume Underperformance: Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)‘s domestic tractor volume growth lagged the industry in Q4 FY25, impacted by an adverse geographical mix & increased competitive intensity.
- Construction Equipment Faces Near-Term Pressure:The CE segment saw a 12.2% YoY volume decline, impacted by weak demand and cost inflation from BS-V emission norms; management expects recovery in H2 FY26.
- Valuation Remains Elevated: Despite a stable operating profile and long-term growth potential, the stock trades at a forward P/E of ~30x, limiting near-term upside amid execution and demand uncertainties.
Inabata & Co (8098 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- FY03/25 saw a 9.4% YoY sales increase, driven by a weaker yen and strong Japan and Southeast Asia performance.
- Operating profit rose 21.9% YoY due to higher sales and improved margins, while net income decreased slightly.
- FY03/26 forecasts sales growth but profit decline, with concerns over US tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical issues.
Daiichi Jitsugyo (8059 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- FY03/25 results: Orders JPY206.3bn (+1.3% YoY), revenue JPY221.8bn (+18.1% YoY), operating profit JPY13.1bn (+44.1% YoY).
- FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY230.0bn (+11.5% YoY), revenue JPY220.0bn (-0.8% YoY), operating profit JPY12.0bn (-8.4% YoY).
- DJK’s “V2030” strategy targets JPY18.0bn operating profit by FY03/31, with ROE of 10% or higher.
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