In today’s briefing:
- Toshiba (6502) Tender Offer – Kioxia Optionality
- KKR/OHB: Agreed Take-Private Offer
- What Is KDB’s Plan B for Asiana Airlines?
- A Look at How SF Holding Differs from A) Its Express Peers and B) The Pre-Covid Version of Itself
Toshiba (6502) Tender Offer – Kioxia Optionality
- Yesterday, JIP finally announced its Tender Offer for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) as discussed in JIP Tender Offer for Toshiba (6502) Finally Here
- I got a few questions this morning on the earnings call comments from Chairman Watanabe regarding what might happen if a Kioxia Transaction were announced mid-JIP Tender.
- My assumption before, during, and after, is that the Board wants this deal done. And doesn’t really want to take any responsibility for pushing any more.
KKR/OHB: Agreed Take-Private Offer
- KKR’s launching a cash offer for space tech firm OHB SE (OHB GR) at €44/share, 37% premium, 8.1x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA, 16.1x Fwd P/E for an implied equity value of c.€769 million.
- The Fuchs family will retain its majority shareholding. OHB’s strong balance sheet might be leveraged to further consolidate the industry. The offer price seems slightly cheap but not outrageous.
- I believe a price hike is unlikely. Gross spread is 3.75%. Considering a break of €32.2, the market is pricing an 86% probability of success. I’d be long the shares.
What Is KDB’s Plan B for Asiana Airlines?
- There have been increasing local news flows about KDB’s potential “Plan B” for Asiana Airlines in case the merger between Asiana Airlines and Korean Air Lines is finally cancelled.
- The final decisions by the European and US regulators on whether to pass/block this merger are likely to take place in 4Q 2023.
- The higher probability scenarios are for one or both of these regulators to block this deal. As such, KDB will need to come up with Plan B.
A Look at How SF Holding Differs from A) Its Express Peers and B) The Pre-Covid Version of Itself
- SF Holding differs from its Chinese peers in several important ways, including business scale, its lack of a formal relationship with Alibaba, and its many non-express lines of business
- SF also differs from the pre-Covid version of itself: it’s far larger than it was in 2019, but core margins have declined, and internatonal exposure has risen dramatically
- In this insight we also take a look at current EV/Revenue valuations vs peers and list important milestones to watch for ahead of the company’s planned HK IPO
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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