In today’s briefing:
- Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent
- Will Group (6089 Jp) – 4Q Follow-Up
- J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | ‘Haven’t We Met Somewhere Before?’
- Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage
Toyo Construction AGM : YFO Wins on Dramatic Foreign Shareholder Discontent
- In my piece Yamauchi Family Office Buys More Toyo; Toyo Claims More Malfeasance, ISS Supports YFO I said I thought YFO would lose, but it would be close.
- I thought it hinged on the shape of the register. It turns out it did. And it turns out they won, and it was close. Analysis is presented.
- What next? The new board takes its seats and may entertain a new takeover offer. I could see a buyout price a fair bit higher than here.
Will Group (6089 Jp) – 4Q Follow-Up
- The day after the Company announced 4Q FY23/3 results and FY24/3 initial guidance for consolidated revenue flat and OP -21.0%, the share price dropped -6.3% on heavy volume, maintaining a weak trend thereafter relative to a strong underlying market.
- SIR believes this is because the new MTP differed from investors‘ growth image.
- While the Company would be remiss not to highlight the high base from the post-COVID surge in special demand for permanent placement as a short-term risk for this term, investors may have been sensitive to the slowdown in growth over the coming two years.
J&T Global Express Pre-IPO, Part 1: Chinese Express Operation | ‘Haven’t We Met Somewhere Before?’
- In this insight we look at the development of J&T’s China business over the past few years, including J&T’s purchase of Best Inc’s express operation in late 2021
- We also compare J&T’s Chinese operation to five listed Chinese express companies in terms of scale, market position, financial performance, and relationships with e-comm platforms
- Finally, we present a framework for the valuation of J&T’s China business, and offer a list of questions we would ask management as the company prepares for its IPO
Apollo/Applus: Somewhat Cheap Offer and First Mover Advantage
- On 30 June, Apollo placed itself ahead of competitors with a €9.5/share cash offer for Applus Services SA (APPS SM), whose shares rose to €9.9, in the hope of a counter offer.
- The market is capable of forcing Apollo to sweeten its proposal to reach 75% acceptances. Many risk arbitrageurs have positions in Applus and may not settle for the current premium.
- This situation has been flagged for a while. If already long, it is worth holding for a possible better offer, which could come around €10/share, a 5.2% increase.
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