In today’s briefing:
- StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.
- JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later
- Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week
- Fanuc (6954) | Growth Flickers, Visibility Dims
- Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!
- Shimano (7309) | Coasting, Not Sprinting
- Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making
- Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point
- Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Will Be Squeezy. Until It’s Not.
- Negligible float, 150x+ forward earnings – yes, investors can afford NOT to have GMO Internet (4784 JP) in their portfolio.
- Preceding my comments on the GMO group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
JAFCO (8595) Good Results, Higher Div, Buyback, More Plans; Not Quite There, But Maybe Will Be Later
- At noon today, Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced full year (to March 2025) results. Revenues were up 21.4% this year, OP +49.7%, and Net Income +27.8%.
- The company announced a ¥5bn buyback, and also announced a new dividend policy of 6% DOE or 50% payout ratio. As it is a markets business, there is no guidance.
- The stock popped significantly in the PM session, but the market zeitgeist is a tailwind. And there is supportive new news.
Solactive Global Lithium Index Rebalance: Passive Flows Next Week
- Solactive has announced the review results for the Global Lithium Index. There are no constituent changes for the index but there will be capping changes for a few stocks.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 10.8% and will result in a round-trip trade of US$208m. There are some stocks with over 0.5x ADV to trade.
- The index has been in a secular downtrend over the last few years and there have been big redemptions from ETFs tracking the index.
Fanuc (6954) | Growth Flickers, Visibility Dims
- Fanuc returns to revenue growth, driven by robomachine demand in Asia, but core robot sales remain weak after last year’s EV-driven surge.
- Management offered no guidance for FY3/26, citing tariff and FX uncertainty; we cut forecasts, with downside risk still looming large.
- A ¥50bn buyback provides limited support, but shares may stay stuck until global capex trends and trade policy clarify.
Jafco (8595.T) Announces a Big Buyback and a Change in Business Strategy- The Market Likes It!
- Jafco divests overseas operations to focus on domestic capital markets
- The company continues to focus on shareholder returns in a meaningful way
- Domestic venture capital returns exceed overseas returns historically and the future looks bright
Shimano (7309) | Coasting, Not Sprinting
- Shimano beat Q1 profit expectations but stuck to cautious full-year guidance, signalling stabilisation in bike markets rather than a real recovery.
- Margins improved, inventories stabilised — but Shimano’s profitability remains well below historic highs, with recovery likely to stay slow and steady.
- Strong balance sheet, resilient pricing, limited US exposure: Shimano looks a defensive bet, even if management’s guidance ends up on the optimistic side.
Fujifilm: Bio CDMO – A Success in the Making
- Fujifilm announced today that the company has entered into a 10-year manufacturing supply agreement valued over US$3bn with Regeneron Pharma to provide US-based production to Regeneron’s biologic medicines.
- Fujifilm’s Bio CDMO business, operating through FUJIFILM Diosynth Biotechnologies, has achieved significant success and growth, driven by a combination of strategic investments/acquisitions, with a focus on expanding its capabilities.
- Bio CDMO business has achieved rapid expansion over the years, and aims to generate revenues of ¥200bn for FY03/2025 and reach ¥500bn by FY03/2028E which seems attainable to us.
Timee: Recent Setback in Share Price Offers an Attractive Entry Point
- Timee Inc (215A JP) ’s share price has been volatile during the last few months despite the company reporting a strong set of results for 1QFY10/2025.
- Timee is the market leader in Japan while Mercari Hallo is still attempting to build its business. Our analysis shows that there is further room for Timee’s earnings to expand.
- Some of Japanese high-growth companies (incl. Monotaro, GMO Payment and Shift) have traded at exorbitant multiples during their high growth phase and we think Timee’s valuation multiples are justified.
Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update
- Sales increased by 6.4% YoY, driven by strong performance in IT solutions and maintenance/operations services.
- Operating profit decreased by 4.6% YoY due to increased SG&A expenses, including goodwill amortization from Primagest Inc.
- FY12/25 earnings forecast projects sales of JPY680.0bn (+4.0% YoY) and operating profit of JPY56.0bn (+5.4% YoY).
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
