In today’s briefing:
- Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
- Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
- Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards
Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
- Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
- If no deal, there’s downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
- I don’t see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.
Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
- Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%.
- This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated.
- With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.
Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards
- After raising guidance yet again in 1QFY23 through stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven & I is scheduled to release Q2 results on 6th October 2022.
- We are optimistic that 2QFY23 could provide the platform for Seven & I to break the ¥6,100 level, at which the share-price has been stuck for the first 9-months 2022.
- This is because, we are seeing a significant improvement in Seven & I’s domestic performance while, North America is carrying the growth momentum that been there since the Speedway-acquisition.
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