In today’s briefing:
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h – Nov: Buen Fin delivered limited price declines
- What Investors Should Be Thankful For
- At a Crossroad
- Oil futures: Brent tests weekly highs, WTI resumes after CME glitch
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Mexico’s Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Weakness
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity Declines in 3Q – 25
- HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Mexican Exports Grow at the Fastest Pace of the Year
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h – Nov: Buen Fin delivered limited price declines
- In the first fortnight of November, inflation stood at 0.47% bw, driven by the withdrawal of the electricity tariff subsidy and higher public transportation prices.
- These pressures were partially offset by softer goods inflation associated with the Buen Fin discount program.
- As a result, annual inflation for the first fortnight of November reached 3.61%, maintaining room for an additional rate cut by Banco de México in December.
What Investors Should Be Thankful For
- Investors should be looking on the bright side this U.S. Thanksgiving. The trade war has stabilized and its effects are manageable and “less bad” than expected.
- Weakening growth will open the door to more rate cuts by the Fed.
- A lame duck Trump is likely to reduce market volatility in the months ahead.
At a Crossroad
- The stock market is at a short-term crossroad. It recently experienced a panic bottom on oversold readings and wash-out sentiment.
- We are watching for signs of a bullish follow-through after the expected relief rally.
- The bull or bear judgment will depend on the market’s action over the coming days.
Oil futures: Brent tests weekly highs, WTI resumes after CME glitch
- Crude oil futures Friday were little changed although Brent tested weekly highs as doubts grow on the prospects for a Russia-Ukraine settlement.
- Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were trading at $63.33/b (1854 GMT) versus Thursday’s settle of $63.34/b, but off from the week’s high of $63.76/b.
- Jan26 NYMEX WTI was at $59.21/b , after trade resumed following a technical glitch.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Mexico’s Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Weakness
- October labor market data showed that employment conditions continue to weaken.
- Although 655 thousand new jobs were created during the month, the increase was driven entirely by informal employment, pushing the informality rate up from 54.9% to 55.4% of the employed population.
- The unemployment rate stood at 2.61% in October, below our forecast of 2.76% and the 2.78% expected by consensus.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity Declines in 3Q – 25
- In the third quarter, GDP posted a -0.3% QoQ contraction, while weakness in industrial activity and the loss of momentum in the consumption sector persisted.
- As a result, our GDP forecast for 2025 would be revised from +0.60% to +0.35%.
- In the ninth month of the year, monthly GDP recorded a decline—already anticipated since the release of the flash estimate of quarterly GDP—of -0.6% MoM, below our -0.3% expectation and the -0.1% projected by consensus.
HONG KONG ALPHA PORTFOLIO: (November 2025)
- The Hong Kong Alpha portfolio returned -2.89% in November versus +1.72% for its benchmark index. The HK Alpha portfolio has outperformed Hong Kong indexes by 33% to 45% since inception.
- The portfolio continues to generate 57% of its returns from alpha (idiosyncratic returns) while maintaining a Sharpe ratio of 2.19 YTD.
- We have sold positions in the materials and industrials sectors and added positions in telecom, gold, and insurance industries at the end of November.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Mexican Exports Grow at the Fastest Pace of the Year
- During October, exports continued to show solid momentum, expanding 14.2% yearon-year, supported by Mexico’s sustained competitiveness in international trade.
- This performance was accompanied by a 15.7% annual rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting stronger demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid expanding external demand.
- The trade balance posted a surplus of USD 606 million in October, outperforming our projection of a USD 455 million deficit and the consensus forecast of a USD 589 million deficit.
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