In today’s briefing:
- BoE QT: Pruning A Bad Policy
- Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (September 10)
- India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Aug)
- Chile: Steady Rates Amid Global Uncertainty
- CX Daily: Motor-Makers Start Their Engines for Electric Aviation Take Off
BoE QT: Pruning A Bad Policy
- The BoE’s annual Quantitative Tightening announcement in September should see it prune the targeted size, we expect by £20bn to £80bn, concentrated in the long-end.
- Fewer maturities in the year ahead would otherwise put too much pressure on active sales into a market that lacks appetite, especially with LDI demand disappearing.
- Pruning the size and duration delays costs crystallising by several billion a year, which the Chancellor will welcome, yet QT’s poor design remains an expensive fiscal disaster.
Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (September 10)
- The Hong Kong secular bull market continues to broaden and has broken all long term resistance levels. The HSCEI has beaten Asian and global peers over the last 18 months.
- Growth and Momentum factors have been the best performers in the HSCI year to date. The Materials and Healthcare sectors continue to show increasing strength in their relative returns.
- Cloud Village (9899 HK) had a breakout pattern from a continuation triangle after reporting a deal to stream Korean drama series to Chinese market. The company’s profits grew in 1H25.
India: After 7.8%YoY in Q1, Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus to Ensure 9% RGDP Growth
- Spurred by 50bp of rate cuts in Feb-Apr’25, real GDP accelerated to 7.8%YoY in Q1FY26, with GFCF rebounding to 7.8%YoY growth. On the production side, services grew a stellar 9.3%YoY.
- The additional 50bp cut in Jun’25 will boost growth in Q2FY26, while an effective 2ppYoY reduction in GST rates will spur consumption and sharply reduce H2FY26 CPI inflation to 1%.
- Over the Oct’25-Sep’26 period, the 100bp cut in repo rate and CRR, and 2ppYoY decline in GST, is likely to provide a 2pp kicker to RGDP, enabling 9% growth.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Aug)
- We expect inflation for the second half of August to come in at 0.07% bw, reflecting the absence of pressures in agricultural prices.
- On an annual basis, headline inflation would stand at 3.56% Typically, inflation for this period is 0.16% bw.
- Our lower estimate is explained by an expected stagnation in agricultural prices (0.01% bw).
Chile: Steady Rates Amid Global Uncertainty
- Chile’s policy rate was held at 4.75%, surprising no consensus forecasts amid stable activity and FX markets.
- Core inflation is higher than June projections, signalling persistent price pressures on goods and services.
- Future moves hinge on additional data. Persistent wage-driven inflation may delay any rate cuts.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
CX Daily: Motor-Makers Start Their Engines for Electric Aviation Take Off
- eVTOL / In Depth: Motor-Makers Start Their Engines for Electric Aviation Take Off
- Autos /Price War Batters Chinese Automakers’ Profits
- Stocks /Analysis: Why Asia Stocks Have Rallied This Year
- Energy /: Sinopec and Saudi Aramco Launch $10 Billion Petrochemical Venture in Fujian
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